气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Economic growth dominates rising potential flood risk in the Yangtze River and benefits of raising dikes from 1991 to 2015

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ac5561
	Economic growth dominates rising potential flood risk in the Yangtze River and benefits of raising dikes from 1991 to 2015
	Qi, Wei; Feng, Lian; Yang, Hong; Liu, Junguo; Zheng, Yi; Shi, Haiyun; Wang, Lei; Chen, Deliang
通讯作者	Feng, L (通讯作者)
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1748-9326
卷号	17 期号:3
英文摘要	Flooding in the Yangtze River Basin could severely damage socio-economic development, river ecosystems, food security, hydropower production and transportation in China. The Yangtze River Basin accounts for approximately 30% of China's gross domestic product (GDP) and is an engine for the country's rapid economic growth. One commonly held belief is that climate change has intensified extreme flood events, leading to increasing economic damage in the Yangtze River. Here, we quantitatively attributed economic exposure to climate change (i.e. climate-induced changes in weather-related events) and GDP growth, and assessed benefits, i.e. the reduction in economic exposure, from flood defence dikes of varying heights. To do this, we developed a framework by combing a large scale hydrological model, a hydraulic model, and long-term GDP data. We find that climate-induced changes in flood inundation area and resulted economic exposure were decreasing overall, whereas GDP growth drove the increases of potential economic exposure to floods. We also reveal that the basin average flood defence dikes should be at least approximately 3.5 m high to achieve an about ten-year average flood occurrence. Our results have significant policy and socioeconomic development implications.
关键词	REDUCTION MODEL SNOW PROTECTION BASIN
英文关键词	flood risk; yangtze river; economic exposure; hydrological extreme
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000765543300001
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/260716
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Qi, Wei,Feng, Lian,Yang, Hong,et al. Economic growth dominates rising potential flood risk in the Yangtze River and benefits of raising dikes from 1991 to 2015[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2022,17(3).
APA	Qi, Wei.,Feng, Lian.,Yang, Hong.,Liu, Junguo.,Zheng, Yi.,...&Chen, Deliang.(2022).Economic growth dominates rising potential flood risk in the Yangtze River and benefits of raising dikes from 1991 to 2015.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,17(3).
MLA	Qi, Wei,et al."Economic growth dominates rising potential flood risk in the Yangtze River and benefits of raising dikes from 1991 to 2015".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 17.3(2022).