气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Keeping global warming within 1.5 degrees C constrains emergence of aridification

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-017-0034-4
	Keeping global warming within 1.5 degrees C constrains emergence of aridification
	Park, Chang-Eui; Jeong, Su-Jong; Joshi, Manoj; Osborn, Timothy J.; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Piao, Shilong; Chen, Deliang; Liu, Junguo; Yang, Hong; Park, Hoonyoung; Kim, Baek-Min; Feng, Song
通讯作者	Jeong, SJ (通讯作者)
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	70
结束页码	+
卷号	8 期号:1
英文摘要	Aridity-the ratio of atmospheric water supply (precipitation; P) to demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET)-is projected to decrease (that is, areas will become drier) as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change, exacerbating land degradation and desertification(1-6). However, the timing of significant aridification relative to natural variability-defined here as the time of emergence for aridification (ToEA)-is unknown, despite its importance in designing and implementing mitigation policies(7-10). Here we estimate ToEA from projections of 27 global climate models (GCMs) under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and in doing so, identify where emergence occurs before global mean warming reaches 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C above the pre-industrial level. On the basis of the ensemble median ToEA for each grid cell, aridification emerges over 32% (RCP4.5) and 24% (RCP8.5) of the total land surface before the ensemble median of global mean temperature change reaches 2 degrees C in each scenario. Moreover, ToEA is avoided in about two-thirds of the above regions if the maximum global warming level is limited to 1.5 degrees C. Early action for accomplishing the 1.5 degrees C temperature goal can therefore markedly reduce the likelihood that large regions will face substantial aridification and related impacts.
关键词	WATER DRYLANDS DROUGHT
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000423840000023
来源期刊	NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/259374
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Park, Chang-Eui,Jeong, Su-Jong,Joshi, Manoj,et al. Keeping global warming within 1.5 degrees C constrains emergence of aridification[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2018,8(1).
APA	Park, Chang-Eui.,Jeong, Su-Jong.,Joshi, Manoj.,Osborn, Timothy J..,Ho, Chang-Hoi.,...&Feng, Song.(2018).Keeping global warming within 1.5 degrees C constrains emergence of aridification.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,8(1).
MLA	Park, Chang-Eui,et al."Keeping global warming within 1.5 degrees C constrains emergence of aridification".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 8.1(2018).