气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluation of the Global Climate Models in the CMIP5 over the Tibetan Plateau

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00321.1
	Evaluation of the Global Climate Models in the CMIP5 over the Tibetan Plateau
	Su, Fengge; Duan, Xiaolan; Chen, Deliang; Hao, Zhenchun; Cuo, Lan
通讯作者	Su, FG (通讯作者)
发表日期	2013
ISSN	0894-8755
EISSN	1520-0442
起始页码	3187
结束页码	3208
卷号	26 期号:10
英文摘要	The performance of 24 GCMs available in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is evaluated over the eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) by comparing the model outputs with ground observations for the period 1961-2005. The twenty-first century trends of precipitation and temperature based on the GCMs' projections over the TP are also analyzed. The results suggest that for temperature most GCMs reasonably capture the climatological patterns and spatial variations of the observed climate. However, the majority of the models have cold biases, with a mean underestimation of 1.1 degrees-2.5 degrees C for the months December-May, and less than 1 degrees C for June-October. For precipitation, the simulations of all models overestimate the observations in climatological annual means by 62.0%-183.0%, and only half of the 24 GCMs are able to reproduce the observed seasonal pattern, which demonstrates a critical need to improve precipitation-related processes in these models. All models produce a warming trend in the twenty-first century under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (rcp8.5) scenario; in contrast, the rcp2.6 scenario predicts a lower average warming rate for the near term, and a small cooling trend in the long-term period with the decreasing radiative forcing. In the near term, the projected precipitation change is about 3.2% higher than the 1961-2005 annual mean, whereas in the long term the precipitation is projected to increase 6.0% under rcp2.6 and 12.0% under the rcp8.5 scenario. Relative to the 1961-2005 mean, the annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.2 degrees-1.3 degrees C in the short term; the warmings under the rcp2.6 and rcp8.5 scenarios are 1.8 degrees and 4.1 degrees C, respectively, for the long term.
关键词	PRECIPITATION MONSOON TEMPERATURE SIMULATIONS RESOLUTION CHINA
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000318775900012
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/258186
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Su, Fengge,Duan, Xiaolan,Chen, Deliang,et al. Evaluation of the Global Climate Models in the CMIP5 over the Tibetan Plateau[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2013,26(10).
APA	Su, Fengge,Duan, Xiaolan,Chen, Deliang,Hao, Zhenchun,&Cuo, Lan.(2013).Evaluation of the Global Climate Models in the CMIP5 over the Tibetan Plateau.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,26(10).
MLA	Su, Fengge,et al."Evaluation of the Global Climate Models in the CMIP5 over the Tibetan Plateau".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 26.10(2013).