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DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112138
	Insights for Canadian electricity generation planning from an integrated assessment model: Should we be more cautious about hydropower cost overruns?
	Arbuckle E.J.; Binsted M.; Davies E.G.R.; Chiappori D.V.; Bergero C.; Siddiqui M.-S.; Roney C.; McJeon H.C.; Zhou Y.; Macaluso N.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	03014215
卷号	150
英文摘要	Hydropower accounts for approximately 60% of electricity generation in Canada, with growth expected in the coming decades as part of renewable energy transitions; however, frequent cost overruns threaten the viability of this growth. Using the integrated assessment model GCAM, we develop an endogenous representation of hydropower for Canada that accounts for market dynamics, thus permitting analysis of hydropower competition with other electricity generation technologies, both with and without cost overruns. Results show that modelling hydropower resources endogenously increases Canadian hydropower deployment relative to an assumption of fixed hydropower production, from 417 to 495 TWh annually by 2050. In scenarios that apply cost overruns at historical levels, hydropower loses market share to more easily scalable technologies like wind power. When including high cost overrun assumptions, the model determines that hydropower falls from about 73% to 65% of Canadian electricity generation by 2050, while wind power increases from about 8% to 11%. Countries may be better able to achieve electrification and renewable energy targets at lower cost by avoiding large-scale, overrun-prone hydropower and nuclear generation projects. Model results support that cost overruns are important considerations for policy decisions related to electricity sector development in Canada and elsewhere. © 2021
关键词	Cost overrun Electricity generation Energy policy planning Energy systems Hydropower Integrated assessment model
英文关键词	Commerce; Competition; Cost benefit analysis; Electric power generation; Hydroelectric power; Hydroelectric power plants; Wind power; Electricity generation; Electricity generation planning; Electricity sector; Electricity-generation technology; Hydro power production; Hydro-power resources; Integrated assessment models; Nuclear generation; Costs; alternative energy; cost analysis; electricity generation; electrification; energy planning; energy policy; hydroelectric power; integrated approach; modeling; wind power; Canada
语种	英语
来源期刊	Energy Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/204996
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, 9211, 116 Street NW, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H5, Canada; Joint Global Change Research Institute (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland), 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, United States; Economic Analysis Directorate, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 200 Boulevard Sacré-Cœur, Gatineau, QC J8X 4C6, Canada; Electric Power Research Institute, 3420 Hillview Avenue, Palo Alto, CA 94304, United States; Department of Geological & Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, 5019 Agronomy Hall, Ames, IA 50011, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Arbuckle E.J.,Binsted M.,Davies E.G.R.,et al. Insights for Canadian electricity generation planning from an integrated assessment model: Should we be more cautious about hydropower cost overruns?[J],2021,150.
APA	Arbuckle E.J..,Binsted M..,Davies E.G.R..,Chiappori D.V..,Bergero C..,...&Macaluso N..(2021).Insights for Canadian electricity generation planning from an integrated assessment model: Should we be more cautious about hydropower cost overruns?.Energy Policy,150.
MLA	Arbuckle E.J.,et al."Insights for Canadian electricity generation planning from an integrated assessment model: Should we be more cautious about hydropower cost overruns?".Energy Policy 150(2021).