气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Decarbonization pathways and energy investment needs for developing Asia in line with ‘well below’ 2°C

CCPortal

DOI	10.1080/14693062.2020.1722606
	Decarbonization pathways and energy investment needs for developing Asia in line with ‘well below’ 2°C
	Zhou W.; McCollum D.L.; Fricko O.; Fujimori S.; Gidden M.; Guo F.; Hasegawa T.; Huang H.; Huppmann D.; Krey V.; Liu C.; Parkinson S.; Riahi K.; Rafaj P.; Schoepp W.; Yang F.; Zhou Y.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	14693062
起始页码	234
结束页码	245
卷号	20 期号:2
英文摘要	Exploring potential future pathways for developing Asia’s energy consumption, CO2 emissions and infrastructure investment needs is essential to understanding how the countries of this rapidly growing region may contribute to the global climate targets set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement. To this end, this study employs the state-of-the-art global integrated assessment model MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM to investigate mid-century decarbonization strategies for developing Asia to 2050. Our results indicate that a radical change in the energy portfolio is required to reach the target of ‘well below’ 2°C. Specifically, our scenarios point to a rapid reduction of fossil fuel utilization, enhancement of low-carbon energy supply, and boosting of energy efficiency efforts. Such a transformation leads to a deep cut in CO2 emissions by 78% and 93% by 2050 in scenarios consistent with the 2°C and 1.5°C targets, respectively. Electricity generation and final energy consumption become dominated by low-carbon energy by 2050 in these scenarios. In terms of investment needs beyond a baseline scenario, the 2°C and 1.5°C pathways imply that the scale of low-carbon investment may need to double and triple, respectively. These increases would be partially offset by disinvestment in coal, oil and natural gas extraction and conversion infrastructure. Decarbonizing the energy system also impacts the capital needed for making progress on other sustainable development goals (SDGs), such as air pollution, clean water and food security. Key policy insights Governments will need to employ a variety of policy mechanisms, including mandates and subsidies for renewables and electric vehicles, efficiency standards for end-use technologies, and bans on free-emitting fossil fuel plants, among others. Relative to the baseline scenario for developing Asia, the scale of investment into low-carbon energy to 2050 may need to double for a 2°C scenario, and to triple for 1.5°C. Policy instruments such as green finance are essential for this region to mobilize a broadened channel of investment, particularly from the private sector. Low-carbon investment would significantly reduce the capital investment needed to achieve the SDG target for air quality, but increase the requirements for meeting targets on clean water and food security, though only to a small extent. © 2020, © 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
英文关键词	climate change policies; energy scenarios; integrated assessment; Investment strategies; sustainable development
语种	英语
scopus关键词	carbon emission; climate change; electricity generation; energy efficiency; energy use; environmental policy; infrastructural development; integrated approach; investment; sustainable development; Asia
来源期刊	Climate Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153309
作者单位	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; Department of Manufacturing and Civil Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Gjøvik, Norway; Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA, United States; University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, United States; Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan; Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ritsumeikan University, Kusatsu, Japan; Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization, Beijing, China; Industrial Ecology and Energy Transitions Programmes, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway; Institute for Integrated Energy Systems, University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada; Graz University of Technology, Graz, Austria; Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhou W.,McCollum D.L.,Fricko O.,等. Decarbonization pathways and energy investment needs for developing Asia in line with ‘well below’ 2°C[J],2020,20(2).
APA	Zhou W..,McCollum D.L..,Fricko O..,Fujimori S..,Gidden M..,...&Zhou Y..(2020).Decarbonization pathways and energy investment needs for developing Asia in line with ‘well below’ 2°C.Climate Policy,20(2).
MLA	Zhou W.,et al."Decarbonization pathways and energy investment needs for developing Asia in line with ‘well below’ 2°C".Climate Policy 20.2(2020).