气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A minimalistic seasonal prediction model for Indian monsoon based on spatial patterns of rainfall anomalies

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4349-2
	A minimalistic seasonal prediction model for Indian monsoon based on spatial patterns of rainfall anomalies
	Sahastrabuddhe R.; Ghosh S.; Saha A.; Murtugudde R.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3661
结束页码	3681
卷号	52 期号:2020-05-06
英文摘要	Seasonal prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR, rainfall during June to September over India) has remained an important scientific challenge for decades, due to its complex multi-scale nature. Statistical and dynamical seasonal ISMR predictions have traditionally relied on the relatively small variability of the spatially averaged monsoon rainfall over India, known as All India Monsoon Rainfall (AIMR). While this has served to mitigate socioeconomic impacts to some extent, overall prediction skill has remained relatively low (Wang et al. in Nat Commun 6:7154. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8154, 2015) while the spatial variability is anything but small. Here we find that the classification of deficit/ dry or surplus/ wet monsoon years based on AIMR does not add value at a regional scale due to the very high heterogeneity of monsoon rainfall, even in the extreme years. To demonstrate the need and the potential to predict this important spatial heterogeneity, we improve the classification of monsoon years by focusing on the spatial patterns of rainfall anomalies within different meteorological subdivisions of India. We apply the k-means clustering methodology and also offer cluster validation. Cluster validation reveals the existence of nine clusters of monsoon years with distinct spatial patterns of monsoon rainfall anomalies. The composite anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) and winds during March to May (MAM) and June to September (JJAS) show distinct hydroclimatic teleconnections indicating potential predictability of regional monsoon rainfall at seasonal scale. To demonstrate the potential prediction pathways for spatial patterns of ISMR, we develop a statistical seasonal prediction model based on Classification and Regression Tree (CART) between SST over different oceanic regions as predictors and monsoon classes as predictands for the period 1901–2010. Search for the potential regressors reveals the importance of new predictors such as Atlantic Niño and SST over North Pacific region along with conventional predictors such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole/Zonal Mode (IODZM), etc. Validation of the method is performed for 2011–2015 and the model is able to predict the regional pattern of monsoon rainfall for 4 out of the 5 years. The purpose of this prediction exercise is to demonstrate the need to focus on the process and predictive understanding of these clusters and their predictability. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Hydroclimatic teleconnections; Indian monsoon; Seasonal prediction; Spatial patterns
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate modeling; climate prediction; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; monsoon; rainfall; sea surface temperature; spatial analysis; spatial variation; teleconnection; India
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146448
作者单位	Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai, 400 076, India; Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai, 400 076, India; Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC)/DOAS, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sahastrabuddhe R.,Ghosh S.,Saha A.,et al. A minimalistic seasonal prediction model for Indian monsoon based on spatial patterns of rainfall anomalies[J],2019,52(2020-05-06).
APA	Sahastrabuddhe R.,Ghosh S.,Saha A.,&Murtugudde R..(2019).A minimalistic seasonal prediction model for Indian monsoon based on spatial patterns of rainfall anomalies.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-05-06).
MLA	Sahastrabuddhe R.,et al."A minimalistic seasonal prediction model for Indian monsoon based on spatial patterns of rainfall anomalies".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-05-06(2019).