气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future urban rainfall projections considering the impacts of climate change and urbanization with statistical

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4493-8
	Future urban rainfall projections considering the impacts of climate change and urbanization with statistical–dynamical integrated approach
	Shastri H.; Ghosh S.; Paul S.; Shafizadeh-Moghadam H.; Helbich M.; Karmakar S.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	6033
结束页码	6051
卷号	52 期号:2020-09-10
英文摘要	Impacts of global warming and local scale urbanization on precipitation are evident from observations; hence both must be considered in future projections of urban precipitation. Dynamic regional models at a fine spatial resolution can capture the signature of urbanization on precipitation, however simulations for multiple decades are computationally expensive. In contrast, statistical regional models are computationally inexpensive but incapable of assessing the impacts of urbanization due to the stationary relationship between predictors and predictand. This paper aims to develop a unique modelling framework with a demonstration for Mumbai, India, where future urbanization is projected using a Markov Chain Cellular Automata approach, long term projections with climate change impacts are performed using statistical downscaling and urban impacts are simulated with a dynamic regional model for limited number of years covering different precipitation characteristics. The evaluation of the statistical downscaling methodology over historical time period reveals large underestimation of the extreme rainfall, which is improved effectively by applying another regression model, for extreme days. The limited runs of dynamic downscaling models with different stages of urbanization for Mumbai, India, reveal spatially non uniform changes in precipitation, occurring primarily at the higher quantiles. The statistical and dynamical outputs are further integrated using quantile transformation for precipitation projection in Mumbai during 2050s. The projections show dominant impacts of urbanization compared to those from large scale changing patterns. The uniqueness of this computationally efficient framework lies in an integration of global and local factors for precipitation projections through a conjugal statistical–dynamical approach. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Extreme precipitation; India; Mumbai; Precipitation downscaling; Urbanization
语种	英语
scopus关键词	cellular automaton; climate change; climate effect; climate modeling; climate prediction; downscaling; extreme event; future prospect; integrated approach; Markov chain; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; urbanization; India; Maharashtra; Mumbai
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146298
作者单位	Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai, 400 076, India; M. S. Patel Deartment of Civil Engineering, C. S. Patel Institute of Technology, Charotar University of Science and Technology, Changa, Anand, Gujarat, India; Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai, India; Department of GIS and Remote Sensing, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran; Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Centre for Environmental Science and Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shastri H.,Ghosh S.,Paul S.,等. Future urban rainfall projections considering the impacts of climate change and urbanization with statistical–dynamical integrated approach[J],2019,52(2020-09-10).
APA	Shastri H.,Ghosh S.,Paul S.,Shafizadeh-Moghadam H.,Helbich M.,&Karmakar S..(2019).Future urban rainfall projections considering the impacts of climate change and urbanization with statistical–dynamical integrated approach.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-09-10).
MLA	Shastri H.,et al."Future urban rainfall projections considering the impacts of climate change and urbanization with statistical–dynamical integrated approach".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-09-10(2019).