气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Strengthening tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient consistent with rising greenhouse gases

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-019-0505-x
	Strengthening tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient consistent with rising greenhouse gases
	Seager R.; Cane M.; Henderson N.; Lee D.-E.; Abernathey R.; Zhang H.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1758678X
EISSN	1758-6798
卷号	9 期号:7 页码:517-+
英文摘要	As exemplified by El Niño, the tropical Pacific Ocean strongly influences regional climates and their variability worldwide1–3. It also regulates the rate of global temperature rise in response to rising GHGs4. The tropical Pacific Ocean response to rising GHGs impacts all of the world’s population. State-of-the-art climate models predict that rising GHGs reduce the west-to-east warm-to-cool sea surface temperature gradient across the equatorial Pacific5. In nature, however, the gradient has strengthened in recent decades as GHG concentrations have risen sharply5. This stark discrepancy between models and observations has troubled the climate research community for two decades. Here, by returning to the fundamental dynamics and thermodynamics of the tropical ocean–atmosphere system, and avoiding sources of model bias, we show that a parsimonious formulation of tropical Pacific dynamics yields a response that is consistent with observations and attributable to rising GHGs. We use the same dynamics to show that the erroneous warming in state-of-the-art models is a consequence of the cold bias of their equatorial cold tongues. The failure of state-of-the-art models to capture the correct response introduces critical error into their projections of climate change in the many regions sensitive to tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/99641
作者单位	Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Seager R.,Cane M.,Henderson N.,et al. Strengthening tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient consistent with rising greenhouse gases[J],2019,9(7):517-+.
APA	Seager R.,Cane M.,Henderson N.,Lee D.-E.,Abernathey R.,&Zhang H..(2019).Strengthening tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient consistent with rising greenhouse gases.Nature Climate Change,9(7),517-+.
MLA	Seager R.,et al."Strengthening tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient consistent with rising greenhouse gases".Nature Climate Change 9.7(2019):517-+.