气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Setting and smashing extreme temperature records over the coming century

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-019-0498-5
	Setting and smashing extreme temperature records over the coming century
	Power S.B.; Delage F.P.D.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1758678X
EISSN	1758-6798
卷号	9 期号:7 页码:529-+
英文摘要	Changes in the intensity or frequency of extreme climate events can profoundly increase the disruption caused by climate change1–4. The more extreme these events, the greater the potential to push ecosystems and communities beyond their ability to cope3,5. The rate at which existing high temperature records have been broken has increased in response to rising global greenhouse gas emissions (GGHGEs)2,6–8, and the rate at which historical records are surpassed is projected to increase further over the coming century1,2,9,10. Here we examine future events that will be so extreme that they will not have been experienced previously. Record setting in 22 climate models11 indicates that, by the end of the twenty-first century, under business-as-usual increases in GGHGEs (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 (ref. 12)), high monthly mean temperature records will be set in approximately 58% of the world every year, and in 67% of least developed countries and 68% of small island developing states. These figures all drop to 14% under a scenario with much lower GHG concentrations (RCP2.6 (ref. 12)). In any given year, the likelihood of ‘smashing’ at least one monthly record by more than 1.0 °C is much less likely under RCP2.6 than it is under RCP8.5 (1.1 versus 8.9%). © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/99442
作者单位	Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Power S.B.,Delage F.P.D.. Setting and smashing extreme temperature records over the coming century[J],2019,9(7):529-+.
APA	Power S.B.,&Delage F.P.D..(2019).Setting and smashing extreme temperature records over the coming century.Nature Climate Change,9(7),529-+.
MLA	Power S.B.,et al."Setting and smashing extreme temperature records over the coming century".Nature Climate Change 9.7(2019):529-+.