气候变化领域集成服务门户

The effect of the meridional atmospheric heat and moisture transport on the Arctic warming is estimated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis over 1979-2015. Major influx of sensible and latent heat into the Arctic occurs through the Atlantic sector 0 degrees-80 degrees E between the surface and the 750 hPa level. This influx explains more than 50% of the average temperature variability in the area 70 degrees-90 degrees N in winter with almost equal contribution of both fluxes. Calculations using MPI-ESM-MR Earth System model from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble showed the similar effect of the meridional atmospheric heat and moisture transport and its increase by the end of the century. Mean summer transport in the low troposphere is directed from the Arctic and transfers out the moisture produced by summer melting of sea ice. The major drivers of summer warming are the radiation processes especially downwards longwave radiation.