气候变化领域集成服务门户

Global temperature change is strongly affected by internal climate variability (ICV). The temporal change of the ICV on the decadal to multi-decadal scales is referred as the decadal modulated oscillation (DMO) that plays a dominated role in the occurrence of enhanced warming and warming hiatus. However, investigation on the DMO in modern historical period has received limited attention. In this study, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method was applied to the surface air temperature (SAT) during the boreal cold season to extract the DMO signal in the past century. Two most sensitive areas of DMO trend over northern Eurasia and northwestern North America were identified and used to build a time series of regionally enhanced DMO. It showed an obvious decadal periodic oscillation at 11-23 years and exhibited increasing amplitude. In addition, regression analysis using Nino3.4, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO) revealed a major role of the AO in DMO over the mid-to-high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). However, such strong oscillation signal has not been detected in most of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and the extracted regionally enhanced DMO are capable of improving the predictability of SAT over the mid-to-high latitudes in the NH.