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DOI10.1016/j.techfore.2019.03.006
Large-scale scenarios as 'boundary conditions': A cross-impact balance simulated annealing (CIBSA) approach
Kemp-Benedict, Eric1; Carlsen, Henrik4; Kartha, Sivan2,3
发表日期2019
ISSN0040-1625
EISSN1873-5509
卷号143页码:55-63
英文摘要

There is increasing interest in cross-scale scenario development, driven in part by developments in climate scenarios. Climate mitigation and adaptation studies have long emphasized the link between global change and local action, and recent climate community scenarios have been developed with cross-scale application in mind. Conceptually, global scenarios have been proposed as 'boundary conditions' on regional and local scenarios. However, while the concept is compelling, to date we have found only one formal proposal (by Schweizer and Kurniawan) of what it might mean from a scenario development perspective. That proposal used cross-impact balances (CIB), which offer a promising route to formalization of cross-scale scenario analysis. In this paper we also apply CIB, but allow for weak, rather than zero, cross-scale interactions. We formalize the concept of weak interactions by extending CIB analysis to allow for metastable states, which are stable under small disturbances. We propose an algorithm for identifying metastable states and for combining states that become connected when small disturbances are present. Arguing that large-scale scenarios can be applied as boundary conditions when they are metastable under the influence of processes at smaller scales, we demonstrate how a simplified CIB can replace a full multi-scale CIB when a metastable scenario kernel is adopted at large scale.


WOS研究方向Business & Economics ; Public Administration
来源期刊TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/98932
作者单位1.Stockholm Environm Inst, Somerville, MA 02144 USA;
2.Stockholm Environm Inst, US Ctr, Somerville, MA USA;
3.Stockholm Environm Inst, Gender & Social Equal Programme, Somerville, MA USA;
4.Stockholm Environm Inst, Stockholm, Sweden
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Kemp-Benedict, Eric,Carlsen, Henrik,Kartha, Sivan. Large-scale scenarios as 'boundary conditions': A cross-impact balance simulated annealing (CIBSA) approach[J],2019,143:55-63.
APA Kemp-Benedict, Eric,Carlsen, Henrik,&Kartha, Sivan.(2019).Large-scale scenarios as 'boundary conditions': A cross-impact balance simulated annealing (CIBSA) approach.TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE,143,55-63.
MLA Kemp-Benedict, Eric,et al."Large-scale scenarios as 'boundary conditions': A cross-impact balance simulated annealing (CIBSA) approach".TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE 143(2019):55-63.
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