气候变化领域集成服务门户

People have been adapting to climate variability and change, with varying degrees of success, for millennia. Yet many individuals and communities struggle to adapt to present day climate variability and extremes. If, as climate projections suggest, we are heading towards a possible 4 degrees C increase in temperature by 2100, the adaptation deficit could increase significantly. 'Transformation' that is radical, rapid and revolutionary and that fundamentally changes the nature of a system may be a better way of adapting, by moving away from limiting behaviours and creating new opportunities. Here we explore the possible impact of alternative types of transformation on development. We focus on transformations in the coastal zone, as globally, this is an area of high population growth, as well as exposed to many natural hazards. We consider three main types of coastal transformation that reflect the main approaches to coastal management: protect, accommodate and retreat. To explore the possible impact of alternative transformations on coastal communities we develop and apply an analytical framework based on ideas of inclusive development (defined as Access to resources; Allocation of both resources and the impacts associated with climate change; and, individual Subjective Wellbeing). We apply this AASW framework to different types of coastal transformation to understand what it might add to our understanding of transformation. We conclude that the AASW framework is useful in identifying that past coastal transformations have not generated universal benefits, and have created some losers. Specifically, it highlights that coastal transformations have different effects on different people; and that winners and losers are determined by whose agenda is taken into account in planning the transformation. This insight reinforces the need for further research on the impacts of coastal transformation, as without due care, policies designed to generate transformation can generate significant losers.