Climate Change Data Portal
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4540-5 |
Improved performance of a PRECIS ensemble in simulating near-surface air temperature over China | |
Guo, Junhong1; Huang, Guohe2,3; Wang, Xiuquan4; Li, Yongping5 | |
发表日期 | 2019 |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
卷号 | 52期号:11页码:6691-6704 |
英文摘要 | The near-surface air temperature over China is simulated from 1950 to 2099 using the PRECIS model from the Met Office Hadley Centre at a 25-km resolution. In order to reflect the different parametric and structural uncertainties in future temperature projections, the PRECIS model is driven by five lateral boundary conditions, which include a four-member HadCM3-based perturbed-physics ensemble (i.e., HadCM3Q0, Q1, Q7 and Q13) and an ECHAM5 model. For the present climate, PRECIS reasonably reproduces the spatial patterns of near-surface air temperatures over most regions in China, except for some underestimation in the west. The annual cycles of mean temperature are well captured but its magnitude is slightly underestimated throughout the year. Future temperature projections are further analyzed for three successive 30-year periods throughout the twenty-first century. Despite more uncertainties with time, the ensemble results demonstrate that the temperature over China is likely to continue to increase throughout the twenty-first century, with different spatial-time variation. There is an apparent increasing pattern along with the latitude for seasonal temperature. Through comparison with the driving GCMs, PRECIS ensemble shows smaller biases in most regions of China, except for in the west plateau. The cause is that RCMs could inherit some errors from the driving GCMs in addition to their own errors. These errors could be magnified unintentionally in downscaling over high elevations and have been propagated into future climate projections. However, there is no apparent relationship between projected changes and model biases (i.e., larger bias does not necessarily lead to bigger changes in temperature). These results could be directly used to analyze the impacts caused by climate warming on agriculture, energy and other related sectors in China. |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
来源期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
![]() |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/98246 |
作者单位 | 1.North China Elect Power Univ, Coll Environm Sci & Engn, MOE Key Lab Resource & Environm Syst Optimizat, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Regina, Inst Energy Environm & Sustainable Communities, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada; 3.Beijing Normal Univ, Ctr Energy Environm & Ecol Res, UR BNU, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China; 4.Univ Prince Edward Isl, Sch Climate Change & Adaptat, Charlottetown, PE C1A 4P3, Canada; 5.Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Environm, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Guo, Junhong,Huang, Guohe,Wang, Xiuquan,et al. Improved performance of a PRECIS ensemble in simulating near-surface air temperature over China[J],2019,52(11):6691-6704. |
APA | Guo, Junhong,Huang, Guohe,Wang, Xiuquan,&Li, Yongping.(2019).Improved performance of a PRECIS ensemble in simulating near-surface air temperature over China.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52(11),6691-6704. |
MLA | Guo, Junhong,et al."Improved performance of a PRECIS ensemble in simulating near-surface air temperature over China".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52.11(2019):6691-6704. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。