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DOI | 10.5194/hess-23-2225-2019 |
Process-based flood frequency analysis in an agricultural watershed exhibiting nonstationary flood seasonality | |
Yu, Guo1; Wright, Daniel B.1; Zhu, Zhihua2; Smith, Cassia3; Holman, Kathleen D.4 | |
发表日期 | 2019 |
ISSN | 1027-5606 |
EISSN | 1607-7938 |
卷号 | 23期号:5页码:2225-2243 |
英文摘要 | Floods are the product of complex interactions among processes including precipitation, soil moisture, and watershed morphology. Conventional flood frequency analysis (FFA) methods such as design storms and discharge-based statistical methods offer few insights into these process interactions and how they "shape" the probability distributions of floods. Understanding and projecting flood frequency in conditions of nonstationary hydroclimate and land use require deeper understanding of these processes, some or all of which may be changing in ways that will be undersampled in observational records. This study presents an alternative "process-based" FFA approach that uses stochastic storm transposition to generate large numbers of realistic rainstorm "scenarios" based on relatively short rainfall remote sensing records. Long-term continuous hydrologic model simulations are used to derive seasonally varying distributions of watershed antecedent conditions. We couple rainstorm scenarios with seasonally appropriate antecedent conditions to simulate flood frequency. The methodology is applied to the 4002 km(2) Turkey River watershed in the Midwestern United States, which is undergoing significant climatic and hydrologic change. We show that, using only 15 years of rainfall records, our methodology can produce accurate estimates of "present-day" flood frequency. We found that shifts in the seasonality of soil moisture, snow, and extreme rainfall in the Turkey River exert important controls on flood frequency. We also demonstrate that process-based techniques may be prone to errors due to inadequate representation of specific seasonal processes within hydrologic models. If such mistakes are avoided, however, process-based approaches can provide a useful pathway toward understanding current and future flood frequency in nonstationary conditions and thus be valuable for supplementing existing FFA practices. |
WOS研究方向 | Geology ; Water Resources |
来源期刊 | HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/97680 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Wisconsin, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Madison, WI 53706 USA; 2.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Dept Water Resources & Environm, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China; 3.Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA; 4.Bur Reclamat, Dept Interior, Denver, CO 80225 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yu, Guo,Wright, Daniel B.,Zhu, Zhihua,et al. Process-based flood frequency analysis in an agricultural watershed exhibiting nonstationary flood seasonality[J],2019,23(5):2225-2243. |
APA | Yu, Guo,Wright, Daniel B.,Zhu, Zhihua,Smith, Cassia,&Holman, Kathleen D..(2019).Process-based flood frequency analysis in an agricultural watershed exhibiting nonstationary flood seasonality.HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,23(5),2225-2243. |
MLA | Yu, Guo,et al."Process-based flood frequency analysis in an agricultural watershed exhibiting nonstationary flood seasonality".HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 23.5(2019):2225-2243. |
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