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DOI10.1098/rspa.2019.0051
Basin bifurcations, oscillatory instability and rate-induced thresholds for Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a global oceanic box model
Alkhayuon, Hassan1; Ashwin, Peter1; Jackson, Laura C.2; Quinnu, Courtney1,3; Wood, Richard A.2
发表日期2019
ISSN1364-5021
EISSN1471-2946
卷号475期号:2225
英文摘要

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) transports substantial amounts of heat into the North Atlantic sector, and hence is of very high importance in regional climate projections. The AMOC has been observed to show multi-stability across a range of models of different complexity. The simplest models find a bifurcation associated with the AMOC 'on' state losing stability that is a saddle node. Here, we study a physically derived global oceanic model of Wood et al. with five boxes, that is calibrated to runs of the FAMOUS coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. We find the loss of stability of the 'on' state is due to a subcritical Hopf for parameters from both pre-industrial and doubled CO2 atmospheres. This loss of stability via subcritical Hopf bifurcation has important consequences for the behaviour of the basin of attraction close to bifurcation. We consider various time-dependent profiles of freshwater forcing to the system, and find that rate-induced thresholds for tipping can appear, even for perturbations that do not cross the bifurcation. Understanding how such state transitions occur is important in determining allowable safe climate change mitigation pathways to avoid collapse of the AMOC.


WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
来源期刊PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/97576
作者单位1.Univ Exeter, Dept Math, Exeter EX4 4QF, Devon, England;
2.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England;
3.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Tas, Australia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Alkhayuon, Hassan,Ashwin, Peter,Jackson, Laura C.,et al. Basin bifurcations, oscillatory instability and rate-induced thresholds for Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a global oceanic box model[J],2019,475(2225).
APA Alkhayuon, Hassan,Ashwin, Peter,Jackson, Laura C.,Quinnu, Courtney,&Wood, Richard A..(2019).Basin bifurcations, oscillatory instability and rate-induced thresholds for Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a global oceanic box model.PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES,475(2225).
MLA Alkhayuon, Hassan,et al."Basin bifurcations, oscillatory instability and rate-induced thresholds for Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a global oceanic box model".PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES 475.2225(2019).
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