气候变化领域集成服务门户

This study estimates the effects of changes in climatic conditions on local pecan production, price, and cash receipts in New Mexico, USA, for the period from 1964 to 2014. Our primary measures for estimating the effects are drought indices: the Palmer Drought Severity Index, and the Standardized Precipitation Index. Our results indicate that precipitation is important to pecan yields. Consistent with previous studies, we find the effects of moisture deficits to be more pronounced compared to conditions of high moisture levels. The gains from moderate to extreme wet conditions on cash receipts are estimated to be as high as +16% while the losses from moderate to severe droughts are as high as -30%. Applying these estimates to cash receipts during the years when an actual wet spell and a drought that took place in New Mexico, the values of these effects are +$12.6 million and -$59.7 million, respectively.