气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Reconciling opposing Walker circulation trends in observations and model projections

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-019-0446-4
	Reconciling opposing Walker circulation trends in observations and model projections
	Chung E.-S.; Timmermann A.; Soden B.J.; Ha K.-J.; Shi L.; John V.O.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1758678X
EISSN	1758-6798
卷号	9 期号:5 页码:405-+
英文摘要	A strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) over recent decades triggered an intense debate on the validity of model-projected weakening of the PWC in response to anthropogenic warming. However, limitations of in situ observations and reanalysis datasets have hindered an unambiguous attribution of PWC changes to either natural or anthropogenic causes. Here, by conducting a comprehensive analysis based on multiple independent observational records, including satellite observations along with a large ensemble of model simulations, we objectively determine the relative contributions of internal variability and anthropogenic warming to the emergence of long-term PWC trends. Our analysis shows that the satellite-observed changes differ considerably from the model ensemble-mean changes, but they also indicate substantially weaker strengthening than implied by the reanalyses. Furthermore, some ensemble members are found to reproduce the observed changes in the tropical Pacific. These findings clearly reveal a dominant role of internal variability on the recent strengthening of the PWC. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
scopus关键词	anthropogenic effect; climate modeling; ensemble forecasting; global warming; model validation; observatory; trend analysis; Walker circulation; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Tropical); Pomatiopsis californica
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/96945
作者单位	Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, South Korea; Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea; Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea; National Centers for Environmental Information, NOAA, Asheville, NC, United States; EUMETSAT, Darmstadt, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chung E.-S.,Timmermann A.,Soden B.J.,et al. Reconciling opposing Walker circulation trends in observations and model projections[J],2019,9(5):405-+.
APA	Chung E.-S.,Timmermann A.,Soden B.J.,Ha K.-J.,Shi L.,&John V.O..(2019).Reconciling opposing Walker circulation trends in observations and model projections.Nature Climate Change,9(5),405-+.
MLA	Chung E.-S.,et al."Reconciling opposing Walker circulation trends in observations and model projections".Nature Climate Change 9.5(2019):405-+.