气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The relative influence of climate and housing development on current and projected future fire patterns and structure loss across three California landscapes

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.03.007
	The relative influence of climate and housing development on current and projected future fire patterns and structure loss across three California landscapes
	Syphard A.D.; Rustigian-Romsos H.; Mann M.; Conlisk E.; Moritz M.A.; Ackerly D.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0959-3780
EISSN	1872-9495
起始页码	41
结束页码	55
卷号	56 页码:41-55
英文摘要	Climate and land use patterns are expected to change dramatically in the coming century, raising concern about their effects on wildfire patterns and subsequent impacts to human communities. The relative influence of climate versus land use on fires and their impacts, however, remains unclear, particularly given the substantial geographical variability in fire-prone places like California. We developed a modeling framework to compare the importance of climatic and human variables for explaining fire patterns and structure loss for three diverse California landscapes, then projected future large fire and structure loss probability under two different climate (hot-dry or warm-wet) and two different land use (rural or urban residential growth) scenarios. The relative importance of climate and housing pattern varied across regions and according to fire size or whether the model was for large fires or structure loss. The differing strengths of these relationships, in addition to differences in the nature and magnitude of projected climate or land use change, dictated the extent to which large fires or structure loss were projected to change in the future. Despite this variability, housing and human infrastructure were consistently more responsible for explaining fire ignitions and structure loss probability, whereas climate, topography, and fuel variables were more important for explaining large fire patterns. For all study areas, most structure loss occurred in areas with low housing density (from 0.08 to 2.01 units/ha), and expansion of rural residential land use increased structure loss probability in the future. Regardless of future climate scenario, large fire probability was only projected to increase in the northern and interior parts of the state, whereas climate change had no projected impact on fire probability in southern California. Given the variation in fire-climate relationships and land use effects, policy and management decision-making should be customized for specific geographical regions. © 2019 The Authors
英文关键词	Climate change; Fire risk; Geography; Housing density; Land use change; Wildfire
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography
scopus关键词	climate change; environmental risk; future prospect; human geography; land use change; nature-society relations; residential development; wildfire; California; United States
来源期刊	Global Environmental change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/96909
作者单位	Conservation Biology Institute, 136 SW Washington Ave, Suite 202, Corvallis, OR 97333, United States; 4250 Executive Square # 250, La JollaCA 92037, United States; Point Blue Conservation Science, 3820 Cypress Dr #11, Petaluma, CA 94954, United States; University of California Cooperative Extension, Agriculture and Natural Resources Division, Oakland, CA 94607, United States; Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Bren Hall, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, United States; Departments of Integrative Biology and Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Syphard A.D.,Rustigian-Romsos H.,Mann M.,et al. The relative influence of climate and housing development on current and projected future fire patterns and structure loss across three California landscapes[J],2019,56:41-55.
APA	Syphard A.D.,Rustigian-Romsos H.,Mann M.,Conlisk E.,Moritz M.A.,&Ackerly D..(2019).The relative influence of climate and housing development on current and projected future fire patterns and structure loss across three California landscapes.Global Environmental change,56,41-55.
MLA	Syphard A.D.,et al."The relative influence of climate and housing development on current and projected future fire patterns and structure loss across three California landscapes".Global Environmental change 56(2019):41-55.