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DOI | 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.190 |
Probabilistic assessment of realizing the 1.5 degrees C climate target | |
Marcucci, Adriana1; Panos, Evangelos2; Kypreos, Socrates2; Fragkos, Panagiotis3 | |
发表日期 | 2019 |
ISSN | 0306-2619 |
EISSN | 1872-9118 |
卷号 | 239页码:239-251 |
英文摘要 | In this paper we develop a probabilistic assessment of the energy transition and economic consequences of limiting global warming by the end of the century to 1.5 degrees C. The assessment is made by applying a Monte Carlo analysis in MERGE-ETL, a technology rich integrated assessment model with endogenous learning. We assume a deterministic 1.5 degrees C target and uncertainty in other factors such as economic growth, resources, and technology costs. The distributions of these variables are obtained by the PROMETHEUS stochastic world energy model. The study assumes early actions and quantifies the market penetration of low carbon technologies, the emission pathways and the economic costs for an efficient reduction of greenhouse gas emissions such that the temperature limit is not exceeded. We find that achieving the 1.5 degrees C Paris target is technically feasible but it requires immediate and global action. Key pillars in the decarbonization of the energy system are large deployment of renewable energy, early retirement of fossil based power plants, energy efficiency and negative emission technologies. Furthermore, that the availability of biomass resources, the rapid decrease of the costs of renewables and improvements in energy efficiency are the factors with the largest effect on the cost of carbon. |
WOS研究方向 | Energy & Fuels ; Engineering |
来源期刊 | APPLIED ENERGY |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/96238 |
作者单位 | 1.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Ctr Econ Res, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland; 2.Paul Scherrer Inst, Energy Econ Grp, CH-5210 Villigen, Switzerland; 3.Natl Tech Univ Athens, Dept Elect & Comp Engn, GR-15773 Athens, Greece |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Marcucci, Adriana,Panos, Evangelos,Kypreos, Socrates,et al. Probabilistic assessment of realizing the 1.5 degrees C climate target[J],2019,239:239-251. |
APA | Marcucci, Adriana,Panos, Evangelos,Kypreos, Socrates,&Fragkos, Panagiotis.(2019).Probabilistic assessment of realizing the 1.5 degrees C climate target.APPLIED ENERGY,239,239-251. |
MLA | Marcucci, Adriana,et al."Probabilistic assessment of realizing the 1.5 degrees C climate target".APPLIED ENERGY 239(2019):239-251. |
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