气候变化领域集成服务门户

With increasing sea levels and anthropogenic coastal pressure, it is more important than ever to develop coastal zone management techniques that are based on sound scientific methodologies. In this paper shoreline change rates were calculated for Port Eynon Bay, Gower, Wales, UK, using a two-step approach (areal and transect-based), to predict future shoreline position and propose management strategies. A Geographical Information System (Qgis) was utilised to calculate shoreline position from historical aerial photographic evidence covering a 60-year period (1944-2014). Results highlighted an increase in the vegetation of 0.41km(2) and a seaward migration of the shoreline (0.3m/yr.(-1)); temporal linear regression models constructed around the cumulative data confirmed a consistent trend of areal increase and shoreline migration. Wind components were qualitatively linked to shoreline changes. Models created to predict shoreline position at 10-year and 50-year epochs can be aligned with shoreline management plans and inform embayed beach shoreline assessments at all scales. A management process model was developed based upon the application of transect and areal assessments that can be utilised to inform CZM by identifying locations of vulnerability, enabling management strategy development, that improves resilience under scenarios of sea level rise and climate change.