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DOI | 10.1007/s11269-019-02233-8 |
Dynamic Management of a Water Resources-Socioeconomic-Environmental System Based on Feedbacks Using System Dynamics | |
Dong, Qianjin1,2; Zhang, Xu1; Chen, Yalin3; Fang, Debin4 | |
发表日期 | 2019 |
ISSN | 0920-4741 |
EISSN | 1573-1650 |
卷号 | 33期号:6页码:2093-2108 |
英文摘要 | System dynamics (SD) have been used in water resources management for many years. However, water resources management using SD is usually in one direction, up to down or down to up, and does not consider internal and external system feedbacks, which may mislead managers and reduce the adaptability of water resources systems. Therefore, dynamic management of a water resources-socioeconomic-environmental (WSE) system based on feedbacks was established in this paper using SD, and a feedback function considering different intensities of feedbacks was proposed. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region (BTHR), China, was chosen as the study area. Three subsystems were included in the WSE system: a socioeconomic subsystem, a water resources subsystem, and an environmental subsystem. We established and compared different dynamic management scenarios with various intensities of feedbacks. The results show that the shortage of water resources and pollution in the BTHR will continue to deteriorate from 2015 to 2030 if no management measures are taken, and the government should direct more attention to reducing the water demand of primary industry and population growth. In addition, we found that the three subsystems in the WSE system influence each other and evolve mutually. In particular, the influence of the water resources subsystem on the environmental subsystem is remarkable and cannot be ignored. This paper may act as a guide for adaptive and multi-objective management of WSE systems. |
WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Water Resources |
来源期刊 | WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
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文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/95821 |
作者单位 | 1.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China; 2.Wuhan Univ, Res Inst Water Secur, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China; 3.Nanjing Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Management Sci & Engn, Nanjing 210046, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 4.Wuhan Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dong, Qianjin,Zhang, Xu,Chen, Yalin,et al. Dynamic Management of a Water Resources-Socioeconomic-Environmental System Based on Feedbacks Using System Dynamics[J],2019,33(6):2093-2108. |
APA | Dong, Qianjin,Zhang, Xu,Chen, Yalin,&Fang, Debin.(2019).Dynamic Management of a Water Resources-Socioeconomic-Environmental System Based on Feedbacks Using System Dynamics.WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT,33(6),2093-2108. |
MLA | Dong, Qianjin,et al."Dynamic Management of a Water Resources-Socioeconomic-Environmental System Based on Feedbacks Using System Dynamics".WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT 33.6(2019):2093-2108. |
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