气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Robust abatement pathways to tolerable climate futures require immediate global action

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-019-0426-8
	Robust abatement pathways to tolerable climate futures require immediate global action
	Lamontagne J.R.; Reed P.M.; Marangoni G.; Keller K.; Garner G.G.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1758678X
EISSN	1758-6798
卷号	9 期号:4 页码:290-+
英文摘要	Disentangling the relative importance of climate change abatement policies from the human–Earth system (HES) uncertainties that determine their performance is challenging because the two are inexorably linked, and the nature of this linkage is dynamic, interactive and metric specific1. Here, we demonstrate an approach to quantify the individual and joint roles that diverse HES uncertainties and our choices in abatement policy play in determining future climate and economic conditions, as simulated by an improved version of the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy2,3. Despite wide-ranging HES uncertainties, the growth rate of global abatement (a societal choice) is the primary driver of long-term warming. It is not a question of whether we can limit warming but whether we choose to do so. Our results elucidate important long-term HES dynamics that are often masked by common time-aggregated metrics. Aggressive near-term abatement will be very costly and do little to impact near-term warming. Conversely, the warming that will be experienced by future generations will mostly be driven by earlier abatement actions. We quantify probabilistic abatement pathways to tolerable climate/economic outcomes4,5, conditional on the climate sensitivity to the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Even under optimistic assumptions about the climate sensitivity, pathways to a tolerable climate/economic future are rapidly narrowing. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/95416
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, Medford, MA, United States; School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States; Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, United States; Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lamontagne J.R.,Reed P.M.,Marangoni G.,et al. Robust abatement pathways to tolerable climate futures require immediate global action[J],2019,9(4):290-+.
APA	Lamontagne J.R.,Reed P.M.,Marangoni G.,Keller K.,&Garner G.G..(2019).Robust abatement pathways to tolerable climate futures require immediate global action.Nature Climate Change,9(4),290-+.
MLA	Lamontagne J.R.,et al."Robust abatement pathways to tolerable climate futures require immediate global action".Nature Climate Change 9.4(2019):290-+.