CCPortal
DOI10.5194/hess-23-1683-2019
Multivariate hydrologic design methods under nonstationary conditions and application to engineering practice
Jiang, Cong1; Xiong, Lihua2; Yan, Lei3; Dong, Jianfan4; Xu, Chong-Yu2,5
发表日期2019
ISSN1027-5606
EISSN1607-7938
卷号23期号:3页码:1683-1704
英文摘要

Multivariate hydrologic design under stationary conditions is traditionally performed through the use of the design criterion of the return period, which is theoretically equal to the average inter-arrival time of flood events divided by the exceedance probability of the design flood event. Under nonstationary conditions, the exceedance probability of a given multivariate flood event varies over time. This suggests that the traditional return-period concept cannot apply to engineering practice under nonstationary conditions, since by such a definition, a given multivariate flood event would correspond to a time-varying return period. In this paper, average annual reliability (AAR) was employed as the criterion for multivariate design rather than the return period to ensure that a given multivariate flood event corresponded to a unique design level under nonstationary conditions. The multivariate hydrologic design conditioned on the given AAR was estimated from the nonstationary multivariate flood distribution constructed by a dynamic C-vine copula, allowing for time-varying marginal distributions and a time-varying dependence structure. Both the most-likely design event and confidence interval for the multivariate hydrologic design conditioned on the given AAR were identified to provide supporting information for designers. The multivariate flood series from the Xijiang River, China, were chosen as a case study. The results indicated that both the marginal distributions and dependence structure of the multivariate flood series were nonstationary due to the driving forces of urbanization and reservoir regulation. The nonstationarities of both the marginal distributions and dependence structure were found to affect the outcome of the multivariate hydrologic design.


WOS研究方向Geology ; Water Resources
来源期刊HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/95120
作者单位1.China Univ Geosci, Sch Environm Studies, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, Peoples R China;
2.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China;
3.Hebei Univ Engn, Coll Water Conservancy & Hydropower, Handan 056002, Peoples R China;
4.Guangxi Water Resources Management Ctr, Nanning 530023, Peoples R China;
5.Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, POB 1047, N-0316 Oslo, Norway
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Jiang, Cong,Xiong, Lihua,Yan, Lei,et al. Multivariate hydrologic design methods under nonstationary conditions and application to engineering practice[J],2019,23(3):1683-1704.
APA Jiang, Cong,Xiong, Lihua,Yan, Lei,Dong, Jianfan,&Xu, Chong-Yu.(2019).Multivariate hydrologic design methods under nonstationary conditions and application to engineering practice.HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,23(3),1683-1704.
MLA Jiang, Cong,et al."Multivariate hydrologic design methods under nonstationary conditions and application to engineering practice".HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 23.3(2019):1683-1704.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Jiang, Cong]的文章
[Xiong, Lihua]的文章
[Yan, Lei]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Jiang, Cong]的文章
[Xiong, Lihua]的文章
[Yan, Lei]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Jiang, Cong]的文章
[Xiong, Lihua]的文章
[Yan, Lei]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。