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DOI10.5194/esd-10-135-2019
On the future role of the most parsimonious climate module in integrated assessment
Khabbazan, Mohammad M.; Held, Hermann
发表日期2019
ISSN2190-4979
EISSN2190-4987
卷号10期号:1页码:135-155
英文摘要

In the following, we test the validity of a one-box climate model as an emulator for atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). The one-box climate model is currently employed in the integrated assessment models FUND, MIND, and PAGE, widely used in policy making. Our findings are twofold. Firstly, when directly prescribing AOGCMs' respective equilibrium climate sensitivities (ECSs) and transient climate responses (TCRs) to the one-box model, global mean temperature (GMT) projections are generically too high by 0.5K at peak temperature for peak-and-decline forcing scenarios, resulting in a maximum global warming of approximately 2 K. Accordingly, corresponding integrated assessment studies might tend to overestimate mitigation needs and costs. We semi-analytically explain this discrepancy as resulting from the information loss resulting from the reduction of complexity. Secondly, the one-box model offers a good emulator of these AOGCMs (accurate to within 0.1K for Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs, namely RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP6.0), provided the AOGCM's ECS and TCR values are universally mapped onto effective one-box counterparts and a certain time horizon (on the order of the time to peak radiative forcing) is not exceeded. Results that are based on the one-box model and have already been published are still just as informative as intended by their respective authors; however, they should be reinterpreted as being influenced by a larger climate response to forcing than intended.


WOS研究方向Geology
来源期刊EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/94876
作者单位Univ Hamburg, Ctr Earth Syst Res & Sustainabil, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Grindelberg 5, D-20144 Hamburg, Germany
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GB/T 7714
Khabbazan, Mohammad M.,Held, Hermann. On the future role of the most parsimonious climate module in integrated assessment[J],2019,10(1):135-155.
APA Khabbazan, Mohammad M.,&Held, Hermann.(2019).On the future role of the most parsimonious climate module in integrated assessment.EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS,10(1),135-155.
MLA Khabbazan, Mohammad M.,et al."On the future role of the most parsimonious climate module in integrated assessment".EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS 10.1(2019):135-155.
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