Climate Change Data Portal
DOI | 10.5194/nhess-19-489-2019 |
A hazard model of sub-freezing temperatures in the United Kingdom using vine copulas | |
Koumoutsaris, Symeon | |
发表日期 | 2019 |
ISSN | 1561-8633 |
EISSN | 1684-9981 |
卷号 | 19期号:3页码:489-506 |
英文摘要 | Extreme cold weather events, such as the winter of 1962/63, the third coldest winter ever recorded in the Central England Temperature record, or more recently the winter of 2010/11, have significant consequences for the society and economy. This paper assesses the probability of such extreme cold weather across the United Kingdom (UK), as part of a probabilistic catastrophe model for insured losses caused by the bursting of pipes. A statistical model is developed in order to model the extremes of the Air Freezing Index (AFI), which is a common measure of the magnitude and duration of freezing temperatures. A novel approach in the modelling of the spatial dependence of the hazard has been followed which takes advantage of the vine copula methodology. The method allows complex dependencies to be modelled, especially between the tails of the AFI distributions, which is important to assess the extreme behaviour of such events. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation and of anthropogenic climate change on the frequency of UK cold winters has also been taken into account. According to the model, the occurrence of extreme cold events, such as the 1962/63 winter, has decreased approximately 2 times during the course of the 20th century as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Furthermore, the model predicts that such an event is expected to become more uncommon, about 2 times less frequent, by the year 2030. Extreme cold spells in the UK have been found to be heavily modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as well. A cold event is estimated to be approximate to 3-4 times more likely to occur during its negative phase than its positive phase. However, considerable uncertainty exists in these results, owing mainly to the short record length and the large interannual variability of the AFI. |
WOS研究方向 | Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
来源期刊 | NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/94853 |
作者单位 | Guy Carpenter, Tower Pl, London EC3R 5BU, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Koumoutsaris, Symeon. A hazard model of sub-freezing temperatures in the United Kingdom using vine copulas[J],2019,19(3):489-506. |
APA | Koumoutsaris, Symeon.(2019).A hazard model of sub-freezing temperatures in the United Kingdom using vine copulas.NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,19(3),489-506. |
MLA | Koumoutsaris, Symeon."A hazard model of sub-freezing temperatures in the United Kingdom using vine copulas".NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 19.3(2019):489-506. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
个性服务 |
推荐该条目 |
保存到收藏夹 |
导出为Endnote文件 |
谷歌学术 |
谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
[Koumoutsaris, Symeon]的文章 |
百度学术 |
百度学术中相似的文章 |
[Koumoutsaris, Symeon]的文章 |
必应学术 |
必应学术中相似的文章 |
[Koumoutsaris, Symeon]的文章 |
相关权益政策 |
暂无数据 |
收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。