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DOI | 10.3390/ijgi8030133 |
Simulating Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Terrorism Incidents on the Indochina Peninsula with GIS and the Random Forest Method | |
Hao, Mengmeng1,2; Jiang, Dong1,2,3; Ding, Fangyu1,2; Fu, Jingying1,2; Chen, Shuai1,2 | |
发表日期 | 2019 |
ISSN | 2220-9964 |
卷号 | 8期号:3 |
英文摘要 | In recent years, various types of terrorist attacks have occurred which have caused worldwide catastrophes. The ability to proactively detect and even predict a potential terrorist risk is critically important for government agencies to react in a timely manner. In this study, a method of geospatial statistics was used to analyse the spatio-temporal evolution of terrorist attacks on the Indochina Peninsula. The machine learning random forest (RF) method was adopted to predict the potential risk of terrorist attacks on the Indochina Peninsula on a spatial scale with 15 driving factors. The RF model performed well with AUC values of 0.839 [95% confidence interval of 0.833-0.844]. The map of the potential distribution of terrorist attack risk was obtained with a 0.05x0.05-degree (approximately 5x5 km) resolution. The results indicate that Thailand is the most dangerous area for terrorist attacks, especially southern Thailand, Bangkok and its surrounding cities. Middle Cambodia and the northern and southern parts of Myanmar are also high-risk areas. Other areas are relatively low risk. This study provides the hotspots for terrorist attacks on a more fine-grained geographical unit. Meanwhile, it shows that machine learning algorithms (e.g., RF) combined with GIS have great potential for simulating the risk of terrorist attacks. |
WOS研究方向 | Physical Geography ; Remote Sensing |
来源期刊 | ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION
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文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/94784 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, 11A Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resource & Environm, 19 Yuquan Rd, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; 3.Minist Land & Resources, Key Lab Carrying Capac Assessment Resource & Envi, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hao, Mengmeng,Jiang, Dong,Ding, Fangyu,et al. Simulating Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Terrorism Incidents on the Indochina Peninsula with GIS and the Random Forest Method[J],2019,8(3). |
APA | Hao, Mengmeng,Jiang, Dong,Ding, Fangyu,Fu, Jingying,&Chen, Shuai.(2019).Simulating Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Terrorism Incidents on the Indochina Peninsula with GIS and the Random Forest Method.ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION,8(3). |
MLA | Hao, Mengmeng,et al."Simulating Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Terrorism Incidents on the Indochina Peninsula with GIS and the Random Forest Method".ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION 8.3(2019). |
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