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DOI10.5194/hess-23-1211-2019
A comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for discharge and nitrate-nitrogen loads involving multiple discrete model inputs under future changing conditions
Schurz, Christoph1; Hollosi, Brigitta2; Matulla, Christoph2; Pressl, Alexander3; Ertl, Thomas3; Schulz, Karsten1; Mehdi, Bano1,4
发表日期2019
ISSN1027-5606
EISSN1607-7938
卷号23期号:3页码:1211-1244
英文摘要

Environmental modeling studies aim to infer the impacts on environmental variables that are caused by natural and human-induced changes in environmental systems. Changes in environmental systems are typically implemented as discrete scenarios in environmental models to simulate environmental variables under changing conditions. The scenario development of a model input usually involves several data sources and perhaps other models, which are potential sources of uncertainty. The setup and the parametrization of the implemented environmental model are additional sources of uncertainty for the simulation of environmental variables. Yet to draw well-informed conclusions from the model simulations it is essential to identify the dominant sources of uncertainty.


In impact studies in two Austrian catchments the eco-ydrological model Soil and ater Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate discharge and nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) loads under future changing conditions. For both catchments the SWAT model was set up with different spatial aggregations. Non-unique model parameter sets were identified that adequately reproduced observations of discharge and NO3-N loads. We developed scenarios of future changes for land use, point source emissions, and climate and implemented the scenario realizations in the different SWAT model setups with different model parametrizations, which resulted in 7000 combinations of scenarios and model setups for both catchments. With all model combinations we simulated daily discharge and NO3--N loads at the catchment outlets.


The analysis of the 7000 generated model combinations of both case studies had two main goals: (i) to identify the dominant controls on the simulation of discharge and NO3--N loads in the two case studies and (ii) to assess how the considered inputs control the simulation of discharge and NO3--N loads. To assess the impact of the input scenarios, the model setup, and the parametrization on the simulation of discharge and NO3--N loads, we employed methods of global sensitivity analysis (GSA). The uncertainties in the simulation of discharge and NO3--N loads that resulted from the 7000 SWAT model combinations were evaluated visually. We present approaches for the visualization of the simulation uncertainties that support the diagnosis of how the analyzed inputs affected the simulation of discharge and NO3--N loads.


Based on the GSA we identified climate change and the model parametrization as being the most influential model inputs for the simulation of discharge and NO3--N loads in both case studies. In contrast, the impact of the model setup on the simulation of discharge and NO3--N loads was low, and the changes in land use and point source emissions were found to have the lowest impact on the simulated discharge and NO3--N loads. The visual analysis of the uncertainty bands illustrated that the deviations in precipitation of the different climate scenarios to historic records dominated the changes in simulation outputs, while the differences in air temperature showed no considerable impact.


WOS研究方向Geology ; Water Resources
来源期刊HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/94709
作者单位1.Univ Nat Resources & Life Sci, Inst Hydrol & Water Management, Vienna BOKU, Vienna, Austria;
2.Zent Anstalt Meteorol & Geodynam, Dept Climate Res, Vienna, Austria;
3.Univ Nat Resources & Life Sci, Inst Sanit Engn & Water Pollut Control, Vienna BOKU, Vienna, Austria;
4.Univ Nat Resources & Life Sci, Div Agron, Dept Crop Sci, Vienna BOKU, Tulln, Austria
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Schurz, Christoph,Hollosi, Brigitta,Matulla, Christoph,et al. A comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for discharge and nitrate-nitrogen loads involving multiple discrete model inputs under future changing conditions[J],2019,23(3):1211-1244.
APA Schurz, Christoph.,Hollosi, Brigitta.,Matulla, Christoph.,Pressl, Alexander.,Ertl, Thomas.,...&Mehdi, Bano.(2019).A comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for discharge and nitrate-nitrogen loads involving multiple discrete model inputs under future changing conditions.HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,23(3),1211-1244.
MLA Schurz, Christoph,et al."A comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for discharge and nitrate-nitrogen loads involving multiple discrete model inputs under future changing conditions".HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 23.3(2019):1211-1244.
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