气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Prediction of unprecedented biological shifts in the global ocean

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-019-0420-1
	Prediction of unprecedented biological shifts in the global ocean
	Beaugrand G.; Conversi A.; Atkinson A.; Cloern J.; Chiba S.; Fonda-Umani S.; Kirby R.R.; Greene C.H.; Goberville E.; Otto S.A.; Reid P.C.; Stemmann L.; Edwards M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1758678X
EISSN	1758-6798
卷号	9 期号:3 页码:237-+
英文摘要	Impermanence is an ecological principle 1 but there are times when changes occur nonlinearly as abrupt community shifts (ACSs) that transform the ecosystem state and the goods and services it provides 2 . Here, we present a model based on niche theory 3 to explain and predict ACSs at the global scale. We test our model using 14 multi-decadal time series of marine metazoans from zooplankton to fish, spanning all latitudes and the shelf to the open ocean. Predicted and observed fluctuations correspond, with both identifying ACSs at the end of the 1980s 4–7 and 1990s 5,8 . We show that these ACSs coincide with changes in climate that alter local thermal regimes, which in turn interact with the thermal niche of species to trigger long-term and sometimes abrupt shifts at the community level. A large-scale ACS is predicted after 2014—unprecedented in magnitude and extent—coinciding with a strong El Niño event and major shifts in Northern Hemisphere climate. Our results underline the sensitivity of the Arctic Ocean, where unprecedented melting may reorganize biological communities 5,9 , and suggest an increase in the size and consequences of ACS events in a warming world. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
scopus关键词	Metazoa
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/93889
作者单位	Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire d’Océanologie et de Géosciences, UMR 8187 LOG, Station Marine de Wimereux, Université de Lille, Université du Littoral Côte d’Opale, Wimereux, France; Marine Biological Association–Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey, Citadel Hill Laboratory, Plymouth, United Kingdom; Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Scienze Marine, Lerici, Italy; Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, United Kingdom; United States Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, United States; Research and Development Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan; Department of Life Sciences, University of Trieste, Trieste, Italy; The Secchi Disk Foundation, Plymouth, United Kingdom; Ocean Resources and Ecosystems Program, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States; BOREA, MNHN, Sorbonne Université, Université de Caen Normandie, Université des Antilles, CNRS, IRD, CP53, Paris, France; Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fishery Sc...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Beaugrand G.,Conversi A.,Atkinson A.,et al. Prediction of unprecedented biological shifts in the global ocean[J],2019,9(3):237-+.
APA	Beaugrand G..,Conversi A..,Atkinson A..,Cloern J..,Chiba S..,...&Edwards M..(2019).Prediction of unprecedented biological shifts in the global ocean.Nature Climate Change,9(3),237-+.
MLA	Beaugrand G.,et al."Prediction of unprecedented biological shifts in the global ocean".Nature Climate Change 9.3(2019):237-+.