CCPortal
DOI10.1016/j.compag.2019.01.011
Fuzzy measure-based multicriteria land assessment for rainfed maize in West Africa for the current and a range of plausible future climates
Ugbaje, S. U.; Odeh, I. O. A.; Bishop, T. F. A.
发表日期2019
ISSN0168-1699
EISSN1872-7107
卷号158页码:51-67
英文摘要

Crop production in West Africa is largely under rainfed conditions, making the system vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. However, the impact of future climate on the geographic range of many crops in West Africa is still uncertain. This is exacerbated by considerable uncertainty in projecting future West African climate by global circulation models (GCMs). In this paper, the current land suitability for rainfed maize (Zea mays L.) production in West Africa and how it would change in response to a range of future climate changes were assessed. A novel non-additive approach involving the integration of a fuzzy measure modelling procedure and the Choquet integral to deal with non-linear relationships among criteria was introduced. The supervised and unsupervised variants of the approach and the Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) aggregators were evaluated and compared using data on the current climate, soil characteristics, and actual maize yield estimates at some locations across the region. The supervised fuzzy measure modelling outperformed the unsupervised variant and the OWA operators, demonstrating the importance of considering interaction among criteria and incorporating human reasoning in multicriteria analysis. Consequently, the supervised modelling approach was used to estimate suitability scores for rainfed maize for the current and a range of plausible future climates which were generated from unique combinations of temperature and rainfall percentile values (5th, 50th and 95th) from 25 and 32 GCMs projections under the RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Under the current climate in West Africa, the combined suitable/highly suitable areas for rainfed maize production are in the humid savanna zones. In contrast, the forest region to the south exhibited moderate suitability with the semi-arid savanna zones being marginally suitable. Relative to the current climate in which 91.3% of West Africa is at least moderately suitable for maize production, suitability for maize will change in at least 43% of West Africa in response to future climate change. Across all scenarios and years, future suitability in the semi-arid region of the Sudano-Sahelian savannas shows strong sensitivity to uncertainty in rainfall projections. However, regardless of the trajectory of future rainfall projection, the 95th percentile temperature projection will decrease suitability in about 15% of the West African region by 2080 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Because of the incorporation of uncertainties of future climate projections in this analysis, the results from this study can be used in the development of flexible climate adaptation strategies.


WOS研究方向Agriculture ; Computer Science
来源期刊COMPUTERS AND ELECTRONICS IN AGRICULTURE
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/93822
作者单位Univ Sydney, Sch Life & Environm Sci, Sydney Inst Agr, Biomed Bldg,1 Cent Ave, Eveleigh, NSW 2015, Australia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Ugbaje, S. U.,Odeh, I. O. A.,Bishop, T. F. A.. Fuzzy measure-based multicriteria land assessment for rainfed maize in West Africa for the current and a range of plausible future climates[J],2019,158:51-67.
APA Ugbaje, S. U.,Odeh, I. O. A.,&Bishop, T. F. A..(2019).Fuzzy measure-based multicriteria land assessment for rainfed maize in West Africa for the current and a range of plausible future climates.COMPUTERS AND ELECTRONICS IN AGRICULTURE,158,51-67.
MLA Ugbaje, S. U.,et al."Fuzzy measure-based multicriteria land assessment for rainfed maize in West Africa for the current and a range of plausible future climates".COMPUTERS AND ELECTRONICS IN AGRICULTURE 158(2019):51-67.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Ugbaje, S. U.]的文章
[Odeh, I. O. A.]的文章
[Bishop, T. F. A.]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Ugbaje, S. U.]的文章
[Odeh, I. O. A.]的文章
[Bishop, T. F. A.]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Ugbaje, S. U.]的文章
[Odeh, I. O. A.]的文章
[Bishop, T. F. A.]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。