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DOI	10.1038/s41558-019-0397-9
	Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying as a transient response to warming
	Sniderman J.M.K.; Brown J.R.; Woodhead J.D.; King A.D.; Gillett N.P.; Tokarska K.B.; Lorbacher K.; Hellstrom J.; Drysdale R.N.; Meinshausen M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1758678X
EISSN	1758-6798
卷号	9 期号:3 页码:232-+
英文摘要	Climate projections1–3 and observations over recent decades4,5 indicate that precipitation in subtropical latitudes declines in response to anthropogenic warming, with significant implications for food production and population sustainability. However, this conclusion is derived from emissions scenarios with rapidly increasing radiative forcing to the year 21001,2, which may represent very different conditions from both past and future ‘equilibrium’ warmer climates. Here, we examine multi-century future climate simulations and show that in the Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying ceases soon after global temperature stabilizes. Our results suggest that twenty-first century Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying is not a feature of warm climates per se, but is primarily a response to rapidly rising forcing and global temperatures, as tropical sea-surface temperatures rise more than southern subtropical sea-surface temperatures under transient warming. Subtropical drying may therefore be a temporary response to rapid warming: as greenhouse gas concentrations and global temperatures stabilize, Southern Hemisphere subtropical regions may experience positive precipitation trends. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/93785
作者单位	School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Australian-German Climate and Energy College, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Geography, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Environnements, Dynamiques et Territoires de la Montagne, UMR CNRS, Université de Savoie Mont Blanc, Chambéry, France; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Postdam, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sniderman J.M.K.,Brown J.R.,Woodhead J.D.,et al. Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying as a transient response to warming[J],2019,9(3):232-+.
APA	Sniderman J.M.K..,Brown J.R..,Woodhead J.D..,King A.D..,Gillett N.P..,...&Meinshausen M..(2019).Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying as a transient response to warming.Nature Climate Change,9(3),232-+.
MLA	Sniderman J.M.K.,et al."Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying as a transient response to warming".Nature Climate Change 9.3(2019):232-+.