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DOI | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.406 |
Financing agricultural drought risk through ex-ante cash transfers | |
Nobre, Gabriela Guimaraes1; Davenport, Frank2; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos1; Veldkamp, Ted1; Jongman, Brenden1,3; Funk, Christopher C.2; Husak, Gregory2; Ward, Philip J.1; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.1 | |
发表日期 | 2019 |
ISSN | 0048-9697 |
EISSN | 1879-1026 |
卷号 | 653页码:523-535 |
英文摘要 | Despite advances in drought earlywarning systems, forecast information is rarely used for triggering and financing early actions, such as cash transfer. Scaling up cash transfer pay-outs, and overcoming the barriers to actions based on forecasts, requires an understanding of costs resulting from False Alarms, and the potential benefits associated with appropriate early interventions. On this study, we evaluate the potential cost-effectiveness of cash transfer responses, comparing the relative costs of ex-ante cash transfers during the maize growing season to expost cash transfers after harvesting in Kenya. For that, we developed a forecast model using Fast-and Frugal Trees that unravels early warning relationships between climate variability, vegetation coverage, and maize yields at multiple lead times. Results indicate that our models correctly forecast low maize yield events 85% of the time across the districts studied, some already six months before harvesting. The models' performance improves towards the end of the growing season driven by a decrease of 29% in the probability of False Alarms. Overall, we show that timely cash transfers ex-ante to a disaster can often be more cost-effective than investing in expost expenditures. Our findings suggest that early response can yield significant cost savings, and can potentially increase the effectiveness of existing cash transfer systems. (c) 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license. |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
来源期刊 | SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
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文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/93701 |
作者单位 | 1.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies IVM, De Boelelaan 1087, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands; 2.Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Climate Hazards Grp, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA; 3.World Bank Grp, GFDRR, Washington, DC USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nobre, Gabriela Guimaraes,Davenport, Frank,Bischiniotis, Konstantinos,et al. Financing agricultural drought risk through ex-ante cash transfers[J],2019,653:523-535. |
APA | Nobre, Gabriela Guimaraes.,Davenport, Frank.,Bischiniotis, Konstantinos.,Veldkamp, Ted.,Jongman, Brenden.,...&Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H..(2019).Financing agricultural drought risk through ex-ante cash transfers.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,653,523-535. |
MLA | Nobre, Gabriela Guimaraes,et al."Financing agricultural drought risk through ex-ante cash transfers".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 653(2019):523-535. |
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