气候变化领域集成服务门户

Climate classifications of climate models' outputs have been used to assess environmental changes but systematic analyses of the differences between models, scenarios and classification methods are scarce. Here, the results of applying the most commonly used climate classifications to the outputs of 47 Global Climate Models (GCM) of different physical parameterizations and varied grid size are presented. The extent and intensity of changes for present climate, three different Representative Pathways Scenarios (RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85) and three increasingly-fine classification methods show that there is a consensus between models, and that climate classifications are indeed useful tools to translate physical climatology variables into environmental changes. The main conclusions are that climate classifications can indeed be used to gauge model performance at several grid sizes and that the classification method does not decisively affects the potential global changes in future climates under increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The analyses also reveal that there are several uncertainties that are not attributable to model grid size or to limitations in the reference datasets but more likely to deficiencies in the physics of the models.