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DOI | 10.1029/2018EF001089 |
A Coherent Statistical Model for Coastal Flood Frequency Analysis Under Nonstationary Sea Level Conditions | |
Ghanbari, Mahshid1; Arabi, Mazdak1; Obeysekera, Jayantha2; Sweet, William3 | |
发表日期 | 2019 |
ISSN | 2328-4277 |
卷号 | 7期号:2页码:162-177 |
英文摘要 | Flood exposure is increasing in coastal communities due to rising sea levels. Understanding the effects of sea level rise (SLR) on frequency and consequences of coastal flooding and subsequent social and economic impacts is of utmost importance for policymakers to implement effective adaptation strategies. Effective strategies may consider impacts from cumulative losses from minor flooding as well as acute losses from major events. In the present study, a statistically coherent Mixture Normal-Generalized Pareto Distribution model was developed, which reconciles the probabilistic characteristics of the upper tail as well as the bulk of the sea level data. The nonstationary sea level condition was incorporated in the mixture model using Quantile Regression method to characterize variable Generalized Pareto Distribution thresholds as a function of SLR. The performance validity of the mixture model was corroborated for 68 tidal stations along the Contiguous United States (CONUS) coast with long-term observed data. The method was subsequently employed to assess existing and future coastal minor and major flood frequencies. The results indicate that the frequency of minor and major flooding will increase along all CONUS coastal regions in response to SLR. By the end of the century, under the "Intermediate" SLR scenario, major flooding is anticipated to occur with return period less than a year throughout the coastal CONUS. However, these changes vary geographically and temporally. The mixture model was reconciled with the property exposure curve to characterize how SLR might influence Average Annual Exposure to coastal flooding in 20 major CONUS coastal cities. |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
来源期刊 | EARTHS FUTURE |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/92702 |
作者单位 | 1.Colorado State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA; 2.Florida Int Univ, SLSC, Miami, FL 33199 USA; 3.NOAA, Ctr Operat Oceanog Prod & Serv, Silver Spring, MD USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ghanbari, Mahshid,Arabi, Mazdak,Obeysekera, Jayantha,et al. A Coherent Statistical Model for Coastal Flood Frequency Analysis Under Nonstationary Sea Level Conditions[J],2019,7(2):162-177. |
APA | Ghanbari, Mahshid,Arabi, Mazdak,Obeysekera, Jayantha,&Sweet, William.(2019).A Coherent Statistical Model for Coastal Flood Frequency Analysis Under Nonstationary Sea Level Conditions.EARTHS FUTURE,7(2),162-177. |
MLA | Ghanbari, Mahshid,et al."A Coherent Statistical Model for Coastal Flood Frequency Analysis Under Nonstationary Sea Level Conditions".EARTHS FUTURE 7.2(2019):162-177. |
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