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DOI | 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.11.022 |
Policy uncertainties: What investment choice for solar panel producers? | |
Pan, Yingjie1; Yao, Xing2; Wang, Xin3; Zhu, Lei1 | |
发表日期 | 2019 |
ISSN | 0140-9883 |
EISSN | 1873-6181 |
卷号 | 78页码:454-467 |
英文摘要 | Solar power has achieved great development in the last decade, and it should continue to play a central role in the face of climate change and sustainable development challenges. This paper builds a real options model that provides a microeconomic analytical framework with the Least Squares Monte Carlo (ISM) method to assess the investment choices of a typical solar panel producer in China facing trade and domestic supply- and demand-side policy uncertainties. It builds a baseline scenario and three policy scenarios with decreasing anti-dumping and countervailing charges, constant feed-in tariff (FIT) level and reduced investment cost. A typical producer will have to make an investment decision on building a new production line in five years based on a decision impact analysis within 20 years. The result shows an immediate investment decision for all scenarios. The producer will have higher return from investment in building a solar power plant with a constant FIT. Export is the optimal choice in other scenarios where investment return is lower. After sensitivity analysis, the paper concludes and can be used as a toolkit for solar panel producers and a reference for policy makers to evaluate the impact of policy uncertainties. (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier B.V. |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics |
来源期刊 | ENERGY ECONOMICS |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/92695 |
作者单位 | 1.Beihang Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100191, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Policy & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China; 3.Sci Po, Inst Sustainable Dev & Int Relat IDDRI, Paris, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pan, Yingjie,Yao, Xing,Wang, Xin,et al. Policy uncertainties: What investment choice for solar panel producers?[J],2019,78:454-467. |
APA | Pan, Yingjie,Yao, Xing,Wang, Xin,&Zhu, Lei.(2019).Policy uncertainties: What investment choice for solar panel producers?.ENERGY ECONOMICS,78,454-467. |
MLA | Pan, Yingjie,et al."Policy uncertainties: What investment choice for solar panel producers?".ENERGY ECONOMICS 78(2019):454-467. |
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