气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-018-0379-3
	A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling
	Mori M.; Kosaka Y.; Watanabe M.; Nakamura H.; Kimoto M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1758678X
EISSN	1758-6798
卷号	9 期号:2 页码:123-+
英文摘要	Northern midlatitudes, over central Eurasia in particular, have experienced frequent severe winters in recent decades1–3. A remote influence of Arctic sea-ice loss has been suggested4–14; however, the importance of this connection remains controversial because of discrepancies among modelling and between modelling and observational studies15–17. Here, using a hybrid analysis of observations and multi-model large ensembles from seven atmospheric general circulation models, we examine the cause of these differences. While all models capture the observed structure of the forced surface temperature response to sea-ice loss in the Barents–Kara Seas—including Eurasian cooling—we show that its magnitude is systematically underestimated. Owing to the varying degrees of this underestimation of sea-ice-forced signal, the signal-to-noise ratio differs markedly. Correcting this underestimation reconciles the discrepancy between models and observations, leading to the conclusion that ~44% of the central Eurasian cooling trend for 1995–2014 is attributable to sea-ice loss in the Barents–Kara Seas. Our results strongly suggest that anthropogenic forcing has significantly amplified the probability of severe winter occurrence in central Eurasia via enhanced melting of the Barents–Kara sea ice. The difference in underestimation of signal-to-noise ratio between models therefore calls for careful experimental design and interpretation for regional climate change attribution. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/92548
作者单位	Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mori M.,Kosaka Y.,Watanabe M.,et al. A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling[J],2019,9(2):123-+.
APA	Mori M.,Kosaka Y.,Watanabe M.,Nakamura H.,&Kimoto M..(2019).A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling.Nature Climate Change,9(2),123-+.
MLA	Mori M.,et al."A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling".Nature Climate Change 9.2(2019):123-+.