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DOI10.3390/w11020259
The Future of Drought in the Southeastern US: Projections from Downscaled CMIP5 Models
Keellings, David; Engstrom, Johanna
发表日期2019
EISSN2073-4441
卷号11期号:2
英文摘要

After being repeatedly struck by droughts in the last few decades, water managers and stakeholders in the Southeast U.S. dread the future extremes that climate change might cause. In this study, the length of future dry periods is assessed using a sub-ensemble of downscaled CMIP5 climate models, which are proven to perform well in precipitation estimations. The length of a dry spell with a twenty-year return period is estimated for the cold and warm seasons for two time periods; 2020-2059 and 2060-2099, and considering two emission scenarios: RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The estimates are then compared with historical dry spells and differences in length and geospatial distribution analyzed. Based on the findings of this paper, little change can be expected in dry spell length during the warm season. Greater changes are to be expected in the cold season in the southern half of Florida, where dry spells are expected to be up to twenty days shorter, while dry spells in Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee are predicted to be up to twenty days longer. The changes predicted by the models are positively associated with emission trajectory and future time period.


WOS研究方向Water Resources
来源期刊WATER
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/92511
作者单位Univ Alabama, Dept Geog, 204 Farrah Hall,POB 870322, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487 USA
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Keellings, David,Engstrom, Johanna. The Future of Drought in the Southeastern US: Projections from Downscaled CMIP5 Models[J],2019,11(2).
APA Keellings, David,&Engstrom, Johanna.(2019).The Future of Drought in the Southeastern US: Projections from Downscaled CMIP5 Models.WATER,11(2).
MLA Keellings, David,et al."The Future of Drought in the Southeastern US: Projections from Downscaled CMIP5 Models".WATER 11.2(2019).
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