气候变化领域集成服务门户

Simulations of past warm climate provide an opportunity to better understand how the climate system may respond to increased greenhouse gas emissions. Using the similar to 25-km-resolution Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4), we examine climate change over China in the Late Pliocene warm period (3.264-3.025 Ma) and further explore the influences of different sea surface temperature (SST) forcings and model horizontal resolutions. Initial evaluation shows that the high-resolution CAM4 performs well in capturing the climatological distribution of present-day temperature, precipitation, and low-level monsoon circulations over China. Based on the standard Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (version 4; PRISM4) boundary conditions, CAM4 predicts an increase of annual mean temperature by similar to 0.5 degrees C over China in the Late Pliocene relative to the preindustrial era, with the greatest warming in northwest China but cooling in southwest China. Enhanced annual mean precipitation is observed in the Late Pliocene over most of China except for northwest China where precipitation is decreased. The East Asian summer (winter) monsoon is intensified (weakened) in the Late Pliocene as suggested by geological evidence, which is attributed to the enhanced (reduced) land-sea thermal contrast. The East Asian monsoon domain exhibits a northwestward expansion in the Late Pliocene, especially over the Tibetan Plateau. Additionally, our results indicate that the modeled climate change is sensitive to the Late Pliocene SST forcings and model resolution. Particularly, different SST forcings [PRISM4-based vs Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP)-based SSTs] affect the modeled phase change of summer monsoon and the associated precipitation change, while model resolution (similar to 25 vs 400 km) mainly impacts precipitation change.