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DOI10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.019
Correlation of dengue incidence and rainfall occurrence using wavelet transform for Joao Pessoa city
Guimaraes Santos, Celso Augusto1; Guerra-Gomes, Isabel Cristina2; Gois, Bruna Macedo2; Peixoto, Rephany Fonseca2; Lima Keesen, Tatjana Souza2; da Silva, Richarde Marques3
发表日期2019
ISSN0048-9697
EISSN1879-1026
卷号647页码:794-805
英文摘要

Dengue, a reemerging disease, is one of the most important viral diseases transmitted by mosquitoes. In this study, 55,680 cases of dengue between 2007 and 2015 were reported in Paraiba State, among which, 30% were reported in Joao Pessoa city, with peaks in 2015, 2011 and 2013. Weather is considered to be a key factor in the temporal and spatial distribution of vector-transmitted diseases. Thus, the relationship between rainfall occurrence and dengue incidences reported from 2007 to 2015 in Joao Pessoa city, Paraiba State, Brazil, was analyzed by means of wavelet transform, when a frequency analysis of both rainfall and dengue incidence signals was performed. To determine the relationship between rainfall and the incidence of dengue cases, a sample cross correlation function was performed to identify lags in the rainfall and temperature variables that might be useful predictors of dengue incidence. The total rainfall within 90 days presented the most significant association with the number of dengue cases, whereas temperature was not found to be a useful predictor. The correlation between rainfall and the occurrence of dengue cases showed that the number of cases increased in the first few months after the rainy season. Wavelet analysis showed that in addition to the annual frequency presented in both time series, the dengue time series also presented the 3-year frequency from 2010. Cross wavelet analysis revealed that such an annual frequency of both time series was in phase; however, after 2010, it was also possible to observe 45 degrees up phase arrows, which indicated that rainfall in the present year led to an increased dengue incidence the following year. Thus, this approach to analyze surveillance data might be useful for developing public health policies for dengue prevention and control. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.


WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源期刊SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/92010
作者单位1.Univ Fed Paraiba, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, BR-58051900 Joao Pessoa, Paraiba, Brazil;
2.Univ Fed Paraiba, Dept Mol & Cellular Biol, BR-58051900 Joao Pessoa, Paraiba, Brazil;
3.Univ Fed Paraiba, Dept Geosci, BR-58051900 Joao Pessoa, Paraiba, Brazil
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Guimaraes Santos, Celso Augusto,Guerra-Gomes, Isabel Cristina,Gois, Bruna Macedo,et al. Correlation of dengue incidence and rainfall occurrence using wavelet transform for Joao Pessoa city[J],2019,647:794-805.
APA Guimaraes Santos, Celso Augusto,Guerra-Gomes, Isabel Cristina,Gois, Bruna Macedo,Peixoto, Rephany Fonseca,Lima Keesen, Tatjana Souza,&da Silva, Richarde Marques.(2019).Correlation of dengue incidence and rainfall occurrence using wavelet transform for Joao Pessoa city.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,647,794-805.
MLA Guimaraes Santos, Celso Augusto,et al."Correlation of dengue incidence and rainfall occurrence using wavelet transform for Joao Pessoa city".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 647(2019):794-805.
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