气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Fingerprints of internal drivers of Arctic sea ice loss in observations and model simulations

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41561-018-0256-8
	Fingerprints of internal drivers of Arctic sea ice loss in observations and model simulations
	Ding Q.; Schweiger A.; L’Heureux M.; Steig E.J.; Battisti D.S.; Johnson N.C.; Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E.; Po-Chedley S.; Zhang Q.; Harnos K.; Bushuk M.; Markle B.; Baxter I.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17520894
EISSN	1752-0908
卷号	12 期号:1 页码:28-+
英文摘要	The relative contribution and physical drivers of internal variability in recent Arctic sea ice loss remain open questions, leaving up for debate whether global climate models used for climate projection lack sufficient sensitivity in the Arctic to climate forcing. Here, through analysis of large ensembles of fully coupled climate model simulations with historical radiative forcing, we present an important internal mechanism arising from low-frequency Arctic atmospheric variability in models that can cause substantial summer sea ice melting in addition to that due to anthropogenic forcing. This simulated internal variability shows a strong similarity to the observed Arctic atmospheric change in the past 37 years. Through a fingerprint pattern matching method, we estimate that this internal variability contributes to about 40–50% of observed multi-decadal decline in Arctic sea ice. Our study also suggests that global climate models may not actually underestimate sea ice sensitivities in the Arctic, but have trouble fully replicating an observed linkage between the Arctic and lower latitudes in recent decades. Further improvements in simulating the observed Arctic–global linkage are thus necessary before the Arctic’s sensitivity to global warming in models can be quantified with confidence. © 2018, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
WOS研究方向	Geology
scopus关键词	anthropogenic effect; climate modeling; climate prediction; climate variation; decadal variation; melting; observational method; radiative forcing; sea ice; Arctic Ocean
来源期刊	Nature Geoscience
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/91825
作者单位	Department of Geography, and Earth Research Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States; Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; NOAA Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States; Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Cooperative Institute for Climate Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ding Q.,Schweiger A.,L’Heureux M.,et al. Fingerprints of internal drivers of Arctic sea ice loss in observations and model simulations[J],2019,12(1):28-+.
APA	Ding Q..,Schweiger A..,L’Heureux M..,Steig E.J..,Battisti D.S..,...&Baxter I..(2019).Fingerprints of internal drivers of Arctic sea ice loss in observations and model simulations.Nature Geoscience,12(1),28-+.
MLA	Ding Q.,et al."Fingerprints of internal drivers of Arctic sea ice loss in observations and model simulations".Nature Geoscience 12.1(2019):28-+.