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DOI10.1016/j.envpol.2018.10.051
Urban population exposure to tropospheric ozone: A multi-country forecasting of SOMO35 using artificial neural networks
Antanasijevic, Davor1; Pocajt, Viktor2; Peric-Grujic, Aleksandra2; Ristic, Mirjana2
发表日期2019
ISSN0269-7491
EISSN1873-6424
卷号244页码:288-294
英文摘要

Urban population exposure to tropospheric ozone is a serious health concern in Europe countries. Although there are insufficient evidence to derive a level below which ozone has no effect on mortality WHO (World Health Organization) uses SOMO35 (sum of means over 35 ppb) in their health impact assessments. Is this paper, the artificial neural network (ANN) approach was used to forecast SOMO35 at the national level for a set of 24 European countries, mostly EU members. Available ozone precursors' emissions, population and climate data for the period 2003-2013 were used as inputs. Trend analysis had been performed using the linear regression of SOMO35 over time, and it has demonstrated that majority of the studied countries have a decreasing trend of SOMO35 values.


The created models have made majority of predictions ( approximate to 60%) with satisfactory accuracy (relative error <20%) on testing, while the best performing model had R-2 = 0.87 and overall relative error of 33.6%. The domain of applicability of the created models was analyzed using slope/mean ratio derivate from the trend analysis, which was successful in distinguishing countries with high from countries with low prediction errors. The overall relative error was reduced to <14%, after the pool of countries was reduced based on the abovementioned criterion. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源期刊ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/91751
作者单位1.Univ Belgrade, Fac Technol & Met, Innovat Ctr, Karnegijeva 4, Belgrade 11120, Serbia;
2.Univ Belgrade, Fac Technol & Met, Karnegijeva 4, Belgrade 11120, Serbia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Antanasijevic, Davor,Pocajt, Viktor,Peric-Grujic, Aleksandra,et al. Urban population exposure to tropospheric ozone: A multi-country forecasting of SOMO35 using artificial neural networks[J],2019,244:288-294.
APA Antanasijevic, Davor,Pocajt, Viktor,Peric-Grujic, Aleksandra,&Ristic, Mirjana.(2019).Urban population exposure to tropospheric ozone: A multi-country forecasting of SOMO35 using artificial neural networks.ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION,244,288-294.
MLA Antanasijevic, Davor,et al."Urban population exposure to tropospheric ozone: A multi-country forecasting of SOMO35 using artificial neural networks".ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION 244(2019):288-294.
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