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DOI10.1007/s00382-019-04740-1
The Pacific Meridional Mode over the last millennium
Sanchez, Sara C.1; Amaya, Dillon J.2; Miller, Arthur J.2; Xie, Shang-Ping2; Charles, Christopher D.2
发表日期2019
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
卷号53期号:5-6页码:3547-3560
英文摘要

The Pacific Meridional Mode, a coupled ocean-atmospheric interaction responsible for propagating subtropical anomalies to the tropics via thermodynamic mechanisms, features prominently in discussions of the response of climate variability to climate change. However, it is presently unclear how and why the variance in PMM might change, or even if greenhouse gas forcing might lead to heightened activity. Here, PMM variance over the last millennium is assessed in the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (LME). The model reproduces the main spatial characteristics of the PMM in the modern ocean in agreement with observations. With this basis, we assess the magnitude of the PMM variance over the past millennium, subject to forcing from a variety of sources. Internal (unforced) variability dominates the PMM variance in the LME, but prolonged periods of strong or weak PMM variance are found to be associated with characteristic spatial patterns, consistent across ensemble members and forcing experiments. The pattern of strong PMM variance features a cooler north Pacific, weaker Walker circulation, and a southward-shifted ITCZ. Comparison with a slab ocean model suggests that equatorial ocean dynamics are necessary to sustain the statistically significant multidecadal variability. With respect to the last millennium, present greenhouse forcing does not promote exceptional PMM variance. However, the PMM variability projected in the RCP8.5 scenario exceeds the thresholds expressed with the forcings applied over the Last Millennium. Aside from multidecadal variability, the model simulations also bear on ENSO variability and the sensitivity of climate variability to external forcing.


WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/90425
作者单位1.Univ Washington, Joint Inst Study Atmosphere & Ocean, Seattle, WA 98195 USA;
2.Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92037 USA
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GB/T 7714
Sanchez, Sara C.,Amaya, Dillon J.,Miller, Arthur J.,et al. The Pacific Meridional Mode over the last millennium[J],2019,53(5-6):3547-3560.
APA Sanchez, Sara C.,Amaya, Dillon J.,Miller, Arthur J.,Xie, Shang-Ping,&Charles, Christopher D..(2019).The Pacific Meridional Mode over the last millennium.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53(5-6),3547-3560.
MLA Sanchez, Sara C.,et al."The Pacific Meridional Mode over the last millennium".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53.5-6(2019):3547-3560.
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