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DOI10.1007/s00477-019-01678-y
Comparison of dynamical and statistical rainfall downscaling of CMIP5 ensembles at a small urban catchment scale
Akhter, Muhammad Saleem; Shamseldin, Asaad Yahia; Melville, Bruce William
发表日期2019
ISSN1436-3240
EISSN1436-3259
卷号33期号:4-6页码:989-1012
英文摘要

Downscaling of future projections of climatic variables from global climate models (GCMs) to urban catchment scales is required for stormwater studies as existing GCMs are unable to predict the rainfall at high temporal and spatial resolutions. In the current study, the capability of dynamical and statistical downscaling methods is evaluated and compared using the rainfall data of current climate and future extreme events at a small urban catchment scale. Regional climate model (RCM) and statistical downscaling model (SDSM) are utilized to downscale rainfall data from twelve GCMs under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The daily rainfall data (1985-2015) of Lucas Creek catchment located in Auckland, New Zealand is used as a baseline/current climate. The future downscaled rainfall data is analyzed in the 2090s (2071-2100). The results showed that both the methods performed well in downscaling the current climate. For future projections, SDSM underestimated mean daily rainfall at the start of the annual cycle and overestimated towards the middle of the year compared to RCM. Similarly, monthly variance and skewness were overestimated for some months by SDSM. The GCMs of both the methods also showed variations in the future rainfall projections amongst themselves. However, significant alterations in the future rainfall were observed compared to the current climate. Rainfall frequency analysis was performed by applying the Gumbel distribution to the baseline and downscaled data for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 20, 30, 50 and 100years return periods. The investigation revealed that RCM and SDSM show similar results for low return periods and different results for high return periods for the current and future climate. Both the methods forecasted an increase in magnitudes of future events however, RCM projections were lower compared to SDSM. The results illustrate the downscaling abilities of both the methods at a small urban catchment scale however, the contrasting implication in downscaling the rainfall data is related to their different downscaling mechanisms.


WOS研究方向Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources
来源期刊STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/90395
作者单位Univ Auckland, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Akhter, Muhammad Saleem,Shamseldin, Asaad Yahia,Melville, Bruce William. Comparison of dynamical and statistical rainfall downscaling of CMIP5 ensembles at a small urban catchment scale[J],2019,33(4-6):989-1012.
APA Akhter, Muhammad Saleem,Shamseldin, Asaad Yahia,&Melville, Bruce William.(2019).Comparison of dynamical and statistical rainfall downscaling of CMIP5 ensembles at a small urban catchment scale.STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,33(4-6),989-1012.
MLA Akhter, Muhammad Saleem,et al."Comparison of dynamical and statistical rainfall downscaling of CMIP5 ensembles at a small urban catchment scale".STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT 33.4-6(2019):989-1012.
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