Climate Change Data Portal
DOI | 10.1007/s00704-018-2398-4 |
Underestimated interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall under climate change | |
Ren, Yongjian1,2; Song, Lianchun2; Xiao, Ying3; Du, Liangmin3 | |
发表日期 | 2019 |
ISSN | 0177-798X |
EISSN | 1434-4483 |
卷号 | 135期号:3-4页码:911-920 |
英文摘要 | This study evaluates the performance of climate models in simulating the climatological mean and interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall (EASR) using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Compared to the observation, the interannual variability of EASR during 1979-2005 is underestimated by the CMIP5 with a range of 0.86 similar to 16.08%. Based on bias correction of CMIP5 simulations with historical data, the reliability of future projections will be enhanced. The corrected EASR under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 increases by 5.6 and 7.5% during 2081-2100 relative to the baseline of 1986-2005, respectively. After correction, the areas with both negative and positive anomalies decrease, which are mainly located in the South China Sea and central China, and southern China and west of the Philippines, separately. In comparison to the baseline, the interannual variability of EASR increases by 20.8% under RCP4.5 but 26.2% under RCP8.5 in 2006-2100, which is underestimated by 10.7 and 11.1% under both RCPs in the original CMIP5 simulation. Compared with the mean precipitation, the interannual variability of EASR is notably larger under global warming. Thus, the probabilities of floods and droughts may increase in the future. |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
来源期刊 | THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/90317 |
作者单位 | 1.Hubei Meteorol Adm, Hubei Meteorol Serv Ctr, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China; 2.China Meterol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.China Meteorol Adm, Inst Heavy Rain, Hubei Key Lab Heavy Rain Monitoring & Warning Res, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ren, Yongjian,Song, Lianchun,Xiao, Ying,et al. Underestimated interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall under climate change[J],2019,135(3-4):911-920. |
APA | Ren, Yongjian,Song, Lianchun,Xiao, Ying,&Du, Liangmin.(2019).Underestimated interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall under climate change.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,135(3-4),911-920. |
MLA | Ren, Yongjian,et al."Underestimated interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall under climate change".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 135.3-4(2019):911-920. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。