气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Bayesian multi-model projections of extreme hydroclimatic events under RCPs scenarios

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DOI	10.1016/j.accre.2017.06.001
	Bayesian multi-model projections of extreme hydroclimatic events under RCPs scenarios
	Sun Q.-H.; Xia J.; Miao C.-Y.; Duan Q.-Y.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	1674-9336
卷号	8 期号:2
英文摘要	A Bayesian multi-model inference framework was used to assess the changes in the occurrence of extreme hydroclimatic events in four major river basins in China (i.e., Liaohe River Basin, Yellow River Basin, Yangtze River Basin, and Pearl River Basin) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios using multiple global climate model projections from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. The results projected more summer days and fewer frost days in 2006–2099. The ensemble prediction shows the Pearl River Basin is projected to experience more summer days than other basins with the increasing trend of 16.3, 38.0, and 73.0 d per 100 years for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Liaohe River Basin and Yellow River Basin are forecasted to become wetter and warmer with the co-occurrence of increases in summer days and wet days. Very heavy precipitation days (R20, daily precipitation ≥20 mm) are projected to increase in all basins. The R20 in the Yangtze River Basin are projected to have the highest change rate in 2006–2099 of 1.8, 2.5, and 3.8 d per 100 years for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. © 2017 National Climate Center (China Meteorological Administration)
英文关键词	Bayesian inference; Climate change projection; Extreme events; RCPs scenarios
语种	英语
来源期刊	Advances in Climate Change Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/89192
作者单位	College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; State Key Laboratory of Water Resources & Hydropower Engineering Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sun Q.-H.,Xia J.,Miao C.-Y.,et al. Bayesian multi-model projections of extreme hydroclimatic events under RCPs scenarios[J],2017,8(2).
APA	Sun Q.-H.,Xia J.,Miao C.-Y.,&Duan Q.-Y..(2017).Bayesian multi-model projections of extreme hydroclimatic events under RCPs scenarios.Advances in Climate Change Research,8(2).
MLA	Sun Q.-H.,et al."Bayesian multi-model projections of extreme hydroclimatic events under RCPs scenarios".Advances in Climate Change Research 8.2(2017).