气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Preliminary assessment on the hindcast skill of the Arctic Oscillation with decadal experiment by the BCC

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.accre.2018.12.001
	Preliminary assessment on the hindcast skill of the Arctic Oscillation with decadal experiment by the BCC_CSM1.1 climate model
	WU L.-Q.; LI Q.-Q.; DING Y.-H.; WANG L.-J.; XIN X.-G.; WEI M.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1674-9301
卷号	9 期号:4
英文摘要	The prediction skill of Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the decadal experiments with the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 (BCC_CSM1.1) is assessed. As compared with the observations and historical experiments, the contribution of initialization for climate model to predict the seasonal scale AO and its interannual variations is estimated. Results show that the spatial correlation coefficient of AO mode simulated by the decadal experiment is higher than that in the historical experiment. The two groups of experiments reasonably reproduce the characteristics that AO indices are the strongest in winter and the weakest in summer. Compared with historical experiments, the correlation coefficient of the monthly and winter AO indices are higher in the decadal experiments. In particular, the correlation coefficient of monthly AO index between decadal hindcast and observation reached 0.1 significant level. Furthermore, the periodicity of the monthly and spring AO indices are achieved only in the decadal experiments. Therefore, the initial state of model is initialized by using sea temperature data may help to improve the prediction skill of AO in the decadal prediction experiments to some extent. © 2018 National Climate Center (China Meteorological Administration)
英文关键词	Arctic oscillation; BCC_CSM1.1; Climate model; Decadal; Hindcast
语种	英语
来源期刊	Advances in Climate Change Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/89157
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China; National Meteorology Information Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	WU L.-Q.,LI Q.-Q.,DING Y.-H.,et al. Preliminary assessment on the hindcast skill of the Arctic Oscillation with decadal experiment by the BCC_CSM1.1 climate model[J],2018,9(4).
APA	WU L.-Q.,LI Q.-Q.,DING Y.-H.,WANG L.-J.,XIN X.-G.,&WEI M..(2018).Preliminary assessment on the hindcast skill of the Arctic Oscillation with decadal experiment by the BCC_CSM1.1 climate model.Advances in Climate Change Research,9(4).
MLA	WU L.-Q.,et al."Preliminary assessment on the hindcast skill of the Arctic Oscillation with decadal experiment by the BCC_CSM1.1 climate model".Advances in Climate Change Research 9.4(2018).