气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7
	Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate
	Kushnir Y.; Scaife A.A.; Arritt R.; Balsamo G.; Boer G.; Doblas-Reyes F.; Hawkins E.; Kimoto M.; Kolli R.K.; Kumar A.; Matei D.; Matthes K.; Müller W.A.; O’Kane T.; Perlwitz J.; Power S.; Raphael M.; Shimpo A.; Smith D.; Tuma M.; Wu B.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1758678X
EISSN	1758-6798
卷号	9 期号:2 页码:94-101
英文摘要	Near-term climate predictions — which operate on annual to decadal timescales — offer benefits for climate adaptation and resilience, and are thus important for society. Although skilful near-term predictions are now possible, particularly when coupled models are initialized from the current climate state (most importantly from the ocean), several scientific challenges remain, including gaps in understanding and modelling the underlying physical mechanisms. This Perspective discusses how these challenges can be overcome, outlining concrete steps towards the provision of operational near-term climate predictions. Progress in this endeavour will bridge the gap between current seasonal forecasts and century-scale climate change projections, allowing a seamless climate service delivery chain to be established. © 2019, Crown.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences;Environmental Studies;Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000456994900011
scopus关键词	adaptive management; climate change; climate modeling; climate prediction; ecosystem resilience
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/84186
作者单位	Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Earth Institute, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Department of Agronomy, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United States; European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada and Climate Change, Victoria, BC, Canada; ICREA, Pg. Lluis Companys, Barcelona, Spain; Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan; World Climate Applications and Services Division, Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch, Climate and Water Department, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerlan...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kushnir Y.,Scaife A.A.,Arritt R.,et al. Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate[J],2019,9(2):94-101.
APA	Kushnir Y..,Scaife A.A..,Arritt R..,Balsamo G..,Boer G..,...&Wu B..(2019).Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate.Nature Climate Change,9(2),94-101.
MLA	Kushnir Y.,et al."Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate".Nature Climate Change 9.2(2019):94-101.