气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y
	Taking climate model evaluation to the next level
	Eyring V.; Cox P.M.; Flato G.M.; Gleckler P.J.; Abramowitz G.; Caldwell P.; Collins W.D.; Gier B.K.; Hall A.D.; Hoffman F.M.; Hurtt G.C.; Jahn A.; Jones C.D.; Klein S.A.; Krasting J.P.; Kwiatkowski L.; Lorenz R.; Maloney E.; Meehl G.A.; Pendergrass A.G.; Pincus R.; Ruane A.C.; Russell J.L.; Sanderson B.M.; Santer B.D.; Sherwood S.C.; Simpson I.R.; Stouffer R.J.; Williamson M.S.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1758678X
EISSN	1758-6798
卷号	9 期号:2 页码:102-110
英文摘要	Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers. © 2019, Springer Nature Limited.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences;Environmental Studies;Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000456994900012
scopus关键词	climate modeling; climate prediction; model test; performance assessment; regional climate
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/83831
作者单位	Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany; University of Bremen, Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP), Bremen, Germany; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada; Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States; Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States; Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States; University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Computational Earth Sciences Group and Climate Change Science Insti...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Eyring V.,Cox P.M.,Flato G.M.,et al. Taking climate model evaluation to the next level[J],2019,9(2):102-110.
APA	Eyring V..,Cox P.M..,Flato G.M..,Gleckler P.J..,Abramowitz G..,...&Williamson M.S..(2019).Taking climate model evaluation to the next level.Nature Climate Change,9(2),102-110.
MLA	Eyring V.,et al."Taking climate model evaluation to the next level".Nature Climate Change 9.2(2019):102-110.