气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios

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DOI	10.5194/tc-13-325-2019
	Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios
	Shannon S.; Smith R.; Wiltshire A.; Payne T.; Huss M.; Betts R.; Caesar J.; Koutroulis A.; Jones D.; Harrison S.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	19940416
EISSN	13
起始页码	325
结束页码	350
卷号	13 期号:1 页码:325-350
英文摘要	The Paris agreement aims to hold global warming to well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C relative to the pre-industrial period. Recent estimates based on population growth and intended carbon emissions from participant countries suggest global warming may exceed this ambitious target. Here we present glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding +2° C global average warming relative to the pre-industrial period. Glacier volume is modelled by developing an elevation-dependent mass balance model for the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). To do this, we modify JULES to include glaciated and unglaciated surfaces that can exist at multiple heights within a single grid box. Present-day mass balance is calibrated by tuning albedo, wind speed, precipitation, and temperature lapse rates to obtain the best agreement with observed mass balance profiles. JULES is forced with an ensemble of six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, which were downscaled using the high-resolution HadGEM3-A atmosphere-only global climate model. The CMIP5 models use the RCP8.5 climate change scenario and were selected on the criteria of passing 2 °C global average warming during this century. The ensemble mean volume loss at the end of the century plus or minus 1 standard deviation is-64±5% for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet. The uncertainty in the multi-model mean is rather small and caused by the sensitivity of HadGEM3-A to the boundary conditions supplied by the CMIP5 models. The regions which lose more than 75% of their initial volume by the end of the century are Alaska, western Canada and the US, Iceland, Scandinavia, the Russian Arctic, central Europe, Caucasus, high-mountain Asia, low latitudes, southern Andes, and New Zealand. The ensemble mean ice loss expressed in sea level equivalent contribution is 215.2±21.3 mm. The largest contributors to sea level rise are Alaska (44.6±1.1 mm), Arctic Canada north and south (34.9±3.0 mm), the Russian Arctic (33.3±4.8 mm), Greenland (20.1±4.4), high-mountain Asia (combined central Asia, South Asia east and west), (18.0±0.8 mm), southern Andes (14.4±0.1 mm), and Svalbard (17.0±4.6 mm). Including parametric uncertainty in the calibrated mass balance parameters gives an upper bound global volume loss of 281.1mm of sea level equivalent by the end of the century. Such large ice losses will have inevitable consequences for sea level rise and for water supply in glacier-fed river systems. © 2019 Author(s).
学科领域	Geography, Physical;Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000457426200001
scopus关键词	boundary condition; CMIP; glacial environment; glacial hydrology; glacier mass balance; global climate; global warming; international agreement; population growth; sea level change; temperature profile; Alaska; Andes; Arctic; Caucasus; Greenland; Iceland; New Zealand; Russian Federation; South Asia; Svalbard; Svalbard and Jan Mayen; United States; United States
来源期刊	The Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/82630
作者单位	School of Geography, University of Exeter, Queen's Drive, Exeter, Devon, EX44QJ, United Kingdom; Bristol Glaciology Centre, Department of Geographical Science, University of Bristol, University RoadBS81SS, United Kingdom; NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG66BB, United Kingdom; Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX13PB, United Kingdom; Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland; Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; School of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, Akrotiri, Chania, 73100, Greece; University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Treliever Road, Penryn, Cornwall, TR109FE, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shannon S.,Smith R.,Wiltshire A.,et al. Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios[J],2019,13(1):325-350.
APA	Shannon S..,Smith R..,Wiltshire A..,Payne T..,Huss M..,...&Harrison S..(2019).Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios.The Cryosphere,13(1),325-350.
MLA	Shannon S.,et al."Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios".The Cryosphere 13.1(2019):325-350.