气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Bluetongue risk under future climates

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-018-0376-6
	Bluetongue risk under future climates
	Jones A.E.; Turner J.; Caminade C.; Heath A.E.; Wardeh M.; Kluiters G.; Diggle P.J.; Morse A.P.; Baylis M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1758678X
EISSN	1758-6798
卷号	9 期号:2 页码:153-+
英文摘要	There is concern that climate change will lead to expansion of vector-borne diseases as, of all disease types, they are the most sensitive to climate drivers1. Such expansion may threaten human health, and food security via effects on animal and crop health. Here we quantify the potential impact of climate change on a vector-borne disease of livestock, bluetongue, which has emerged in northern Europe in response to climate change2–4, affecting tens of thousands of farms at huge financial cost and causing the deaths of millions of animals5. We derive future disease risk trends for northern Europe, and use a detailed spatial transmission model6 to simulate outbreaks in England and Wales under future climatic conditions, using an ensemble of five downscaled general circulation models7. By 2100, bluetongue risk extends further north, the transmission season lengthens by up to three months and outbreaks are larger on average. A 1 in 20-year outbreak at present-day temperatures becomes typical by the 2070s under the highest greenhouse gas emission scenario. However, animal movement restrictions are sufficient to prevent truly devastating outbreaks. Disease transmission uncertainty dominates over climate uncertainty, even at the longest prediction timescales. Our results suggest that efficient detection and control measures to limit the spread of vector-borne diseases will be increasingly vital in future, warmer climates. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences;Environmental Studies;Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000456994900021
scopus关键词	Animalia
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/82042
作者单位	Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom; Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Neston, United Kingdom; NIHR, Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, Liverpool, United Kingdom; School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom; CHICAS, Lancaster University Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jones A.E.,Turner J.,Caminade C.,et al. Bluetongue risk under future climates[J],2019,9(2):153-+.
APA	Jones A.E..,Turner J..,Caminade C..,Heath A.E..,Wardeh M..,...&Baylis M..(2019).Bluetongue risk under future climates.Nature Climate Change,9(2),153-+.
MLA	Jones A.E.,et al."Bluetongue risk under future climates".Nature Climate Change 9.2(2019):153-+.